Posted on 10/26/2007 6:39:47 PM

NFL Football Betting: Bills at Jets

By Charles Jay

NOTABLE STAT: Buffalo 458 ypg allowed in first 3 games, 346 ypg allowed in last three

KEY NFL BETTING TREND: Buffalo is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games

(For more useful stats and trends, visit our special Matchup Tool)

BetUS NFL betting odds: NY Jets -3, Total: 37

The New York Jets (1-6 SU, 1-5-1 ATS), coming off a heart-breaking effort in Cincinnati, will try to regroup and capture their second win of the season on Sunday (1 PM ET) when they play host to the Buffalo Bills (2-4 SU, 4-2 ATS) at Giants Stadium in the Meadowlands (artificial turf). The Jets are listed at -3 in the BetUS football betting odds, with an over/under posted at 37 points.

The Jets allowed 21 fourth-quarter points in losing to the Cincinnati Bengals 38-31 as a six-point underdog on Sunday, dropping their fourth straight pointspread decision. If there was something partially encouraging, it's that quarterback Chad Pennington threw the ball down the field a little. Pennington has three touchdown passes of 30 or more yards, but also had an interception returned 42 yards for a touchdown by Cincinnati's Johnathan Joseph.

Though wide receivers Jerricho Cotchery and Laveraneous Coles combined for 193 yards against the Bengals, the running game again had little impact, as Thomas Jones had a ho-hum day with 67 yards on 19 carries. The Jets were just 2-11 in third down situations, and on the defensive side, are still not getting pressure on the passer (just seven sacks).

Let's take a quick look at some NFL football betting trends that are relative to this matchup:

* BUFFALO is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games

* BUFFALO has played five unders in its last seven games

* BUFFALO is 13-6 ATS in its last 19 division games

* JETS have won five of their last six at home SU against Buffalo

* BUFFALO has covered six of its last eight meetings with Jets

* BUFFALO is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 visiting the Jets

* Five of the last six meetings have gone over the total

Don't look now, but the Bills have strung together a few pretty good performances after being shelled in consecutive games by the Steelers and Patriots. Trent Edwards made his first start at quarterback in a 17-14 win over the Jets at Ralph Wilson Stadium, then the one-point loss to Dallas, in which the Bills did not play well on offense but intercepted Tony Romo five times, and a 19-14 win over the Baltimore Ravens, in which Buffalo covered as a three-point dog. This team could easily be 4-2 if not for some bad luck along the way. There is some trepidation about this being Edwards' first road start. He was 11 for 21 with 153 yards against the Ravens. But he is just as confident as his predecessor, J.P.Losman.

Early on, the Bills lost three defensive starters for the season, along with others for extended periods, but as the replacements have blended themselves into the mix and the team got a little healthier, there has been some great improvements. In the first three games Buffalo allowed 458 yards and 26 points per game. In the last three, those figures have been reduced to 346 and 17.7, respectively.

The Bills may be moving in a more positive direction right now. And the improved defensive numbers have resulted in three straight covering efforts. But when you are outgained by 173 yards a game, that's not something you can overcome for very long. Buffalo does not have a productive offense; if you look at the Dallas game, for example, there were no offensive TD's. New York is NOT going in a positive direction, but Eric Mangini is cracking the whip this week, and while that won't provide long-term solutions, it will perhaps yield a short-term result. Buffalo isn't likely to be pulling off any 21-point quarters. This is their first road trip in a month. And the swirling wind in Giants Stadium has been known to play tricks on young QB's. The Bills are still vulnerable to the pass, and as Pennington proved last week, he can actually fit a couple of downfield throws. We'll lay a field goal with the Jets, a three-point favorite on the BetUS NFL betting line.

JAY'S PLAY: NY JETS ** (Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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(Charles Jay of TotalActionExtra.com is a member of the NFL too - that is, "not for long" if you don't get results. He is now a regular contributor to the BetUS.com Locker Room)