Posted on 10/26/2007 7:58:30 PM

NFL Betting: Jaguars Show a Touch of Gray

By BetUS Staff

The starting quarterback is the first person you look at when you hunker down for a week of NFL betting. But some QBs are more replaceable than others.

Not to say that David Garrard is a replacement-level pivot. Far from it: Garrard has carved himself a niche as one of the most efficient QBs this season, with a passer rating of 102.9 and a fifth-best DPAR of 43.5 in passing situations. You can tack on a league-best 5.2 DPAR as a rusher, making Garrard’s production more valuable thus far than Tony Romo’s.

Yet the news of Garrard’s sprained left ankle, which is expected to keep him out of action for the next month, appears to have had very little impact on the NFL odds. If anything, people are lining up to support Garrard’s Jacksonville Jaguars in his absence as they prepare to visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. This matchup was off the board as press time, but on Tuesday, the Jags were 3.5-point underdogs, down from 4.5 at the open.

Quinn Gray is expected to make his first NFL start Sunday. Thrust into action this past Monday against the Indianapolis Colts after Garrard was injured early in the second quarter, Gray went 9-for-24 for 56 yards, zero touchdowns and two interceptions. It was anything but a command performance; however, Jacksonville didn’t do Gray any favors by reverting to its early-season form and abandoning the run too hastily.

Gray’s task Sunday should be simpler. For one, he won’t be coming into the game cold and with his team down 7-0. Gray will also be facing the No. 13-ranked defense in the league in Tampa Bay – the Colts are currently sixth in defensive efficiency. Gray’s raw tools coming out of Florida A&M suggest he can play the same efficiency card as Garrard: both are powerfully built at around 240 pounds with good mobility. Gray has the stronger arm, but he also has considerably less experience under center, aside from leading the Frankfurt Galaxy to the NFL Europe title in 2003.

The good news for Jags supporters is that Gray has made himself very familiar with the playbook since his first training camp with the team in 2002. And the game plan is simple: Run the damn ball. The Jaguars have the No. 10-ranked rushing attack in the NFL, led by the tandem of Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor. They’ve combined for 139 carries; Garrard, meanwhile, is 24th in the league with just 148 pass attempts. As long as Gray keeps handing the ball off, preferably to Jones-Drew, the Jacksonville offense should keep churning out yardage.

Kick-off is at 4:05 p.m. Eastern; the total as of Tuesday afternoon was a low, low 32.5 points.

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