posted January 17, 2008 at 10:35 in NFL Betting Trends

New England’s perfect run has perhaps been the focal point of the entire NFL betting season. And for much good reason. The Patriots never went in to a game as a betting underdog, with their lowest spreads being -5 against Dallas on the road, and -5.5 against Indianapolis also on the road. As Bill Belichik instituted “decimating the scoreboard” and “embarrassing trash talking idiots” in to his game plan motivation, scoreboards across the league were melting down.

In the first five games of the season, New England outscored their opponents 182-65 leading the NFL betting community to believe that the Patriots were going to win every game in a blowout. In fact, the Patriots went 8-0 ATS to open the season until their 24-20 victory in the RCA Dome against a vigilant Colts team. It was their first loss to Vegas.

During the second half of the season, the Patriots only went 2-6 ATS and saw their margin of victory shrink faster than Britney’s public appeal. The Patriots betting faithful hemorrhaged money during the second half of the season as they stood by the belief that New England was going to run up the score in every game. Certainly they tried. But near-losses to A.J. Feeley of the Eagles and Kyle Boller of Baltimore (who would’ve guessed?) showed them to be human after all. It was eerily similar to the Joker, Penguin and Two Face all finally discovering that Batman didn’t have super powers. Like Bruce Wayne, the Patriots were, in fact, human.

That, however, didn’t stop Vegas from dropping huge spreads on these games. In the last month, the Patriots were favored by an average of 17.6 points. They subsequently tumbled to a gaudy 0-4 ATS record in the past five weeks (including playoffs) and are staring at a -15.5 point spread against a very dangerous San Diego squad.

So what gives? The Patriots give up 91.9 rushing yards per game, ranking them tenth in the league. The games against the Giants and Jacksonville prove vehemently that the Patriots struggle against teams that run the ball effectively. Both teams rank in the top-10 in rushing and proved that controlling the clock and the game is possible by establishing a formidable rushing attack against the Patriots. That is bad news for those wishing to load up on the Patriots this weekend. San Diego is ranked seventh in league rushing, averaging 127.4 rush yards per game.

Aside from that, however, there is no discernable evidence that neutralizing any single offensive weapon on New England’s imposing roster drastically effects the outcome. If Moss is shutdown, as he was against Jacksonville, Welker picks up the slack. And the biting criticism that Maroney receives from New England fans, he still averaged 4.5 rushing yards per carry and 29.0 receiving yards per catch. Brady is simply that effective.

Against the Jets in Week 15, Brady played his absolute worst game of the season and was caught off guard by a surly Jets defense that played out-of-its-mind forcing four fumbles, recovering one and stealing a pick from Brady. This ultimately leads me to my point.

The Patriots have not played well recently against defenses that key off of momentum. It is an odd thing both to consider and defend, but hear me out. The Patriots lost with the handicap to Baltimore, Philadelphia, NYG, Jacksonville, Indianapolis and the NYJ. And that is disconcerting, especially since no other team in the league goes bananas defensively with momentum than the Chargers. Call it what you will, but all I’m calling it is a “warning” when you are dropping dimes on this game this weekend.

There will be much more in depth coverage to come in our Locker Room as the game inches closer. But the Patriots recent 0-4 ATS record deserved some more attention than it was getting. Before you clamor to our futures and sportsbook to get on the Pats betting bandwagon, be forewarned: the oddsmakers have been curiously accurate in their spreads against the Patriots.

That is perhaps the price of perfection – it’s misleading. The Patriots will have to face two out of three teams that boast devastating ground assaults, and passionate defenses. That may not translate in to a straight up loss, but it should definitely effect the way you bet on these upcoming games. This is till the best team to ever play the game, but the NFL betting trends are what the serious investor keys off of. In the end, nobody will care about these spread losses if the Patriots win the Superbowl. After all, nobody ever talks about the fact that the 1972 Dolphins never played a playoff team during the regular season.

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