Posted on
12/24/2007 5:29:53 PM
NFL Betting Trends – Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers
By Eric Williams
The Denver Broncos, (6-8 SU, 4-10 ATS, 11-3 O/U) are ranked sixth in overall offense, averaging 353.9 yards and 21.1 points per game but got a big-time spanking from the Houston Texans last week, losing 31-13, mostly because of their 22nd ranked defense, which allows 336.4 yards and 26.2 points per game.
The San Diego Chargers, (9-5 SU, 9-5 ATS, 7-5-2 O/U) are ranked 20th in overall offense, averaging 318.4 yards and 25.6 points per game. The Chargers had their best game of the season last week, spanking the Detroit Lions 51-14 last Thursday.
The Chargers are ranked 16th in overall defense, allowing 327.4 yards and 18.9 points per game and need to win their final two games to secure the No. 3 spot in the AFC playoffs and the right to avoid the New England Patriots.
The Chargers are starting to resemble their team that went 14-2 last season under former head coach Marty Schottenheimer. Pro Bowl running back Ladainian Tomlinson has rushed for an average of 129.0 yards per game during the Chargers’ current four-game winning streak.
Here is a look at tonight’s key trends followed by my NFL Betting Free Picks:
Key Broncos Trends
The Broncos are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games overall.
The Broncos are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games following a ATS loss.
The Broncos are 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games on grass.
Key Chargers Trends
The Chargers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as a favorite.
The Chargers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.
The Chargers are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.
Key Totals Trends
The Over is 5-0 in Broncos last five games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
The Over is 5-0 in Broncos last five games as a road underdog.
The Under is 5-1 in Chargers last six Monday games.
The Under is 4-1-1 in Chargers last six games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Key Head-to-Head Trends
There are no trends available.
Analysis: The Chargers haven’t beaten the Chiefs four consecutive times since the late 1960s, but are going to turn the trick in this matchup. Although I’m not particularly fond of the high, 10-point spread here, I’m going to take the Chargers to win outright and cover. The truth is, the Broncos have been a major disappointment this season and are so inconsistent I wouldn’t bet on the with someone else’s money, more or less my own.
To be totally honest about it, the best bet for this matchup is to take the ‘Over.’
NFL Free Picks: Over 47 Total Points
08:00 PM EST NFL Betting
Denver Broncos +10 -110
San Diego Chargers -10 -110
Over 47 -110
Under 47 -110
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