posted January 10, 2008 at 23:02 in NFL Free Picks
NFL Playoff Wagering ‘Lock Alert’ –Chargers at Colts
The San Diego Chargers, (12-5 SU, 12-5 ATS, 8-7-2 O/U) enter this contest playing their best football of the season. After a mediocre and inconsistent 1-3 start to the regular season under new head coach Norv Turner. The Chargers are riding a seven-game winning streak, including last week’s 17-6 AFC wild card win over the Tennessee Titans.
The Indianapolis Colts, (13-3 SU, 9-7 ATS, 7-9 O/U) had a week off to rest their veterans and enter this year’s postseason with one singular goal in mind – winning consecutive Super Bowl titles.
The Colts will be facing a confident Chargers team that won its first playoff game in 13 years last week and beat the Colts 23-21 at home on Nov. 11.
Indianapolis however, had numerous opportunities to win that game – had they just played their normal game that day.
The Chargers were the recipients of Peyton Manning’s franchise-record six interceptions that day but still almost ended up losing the game until veteran place kicker Adam Vinatieri - who helped the New England Patriots win two Super Bowl titles with last-second field goals - missed a 29-yarder with 1:31 remaining.
The Colts were also without several key players in that game, starting with Hall of Fame-bound wide receiver Marvin Harrison. Indianapolis will have Harrison back for this contest along with fellow wideout Anthony Gonzalez, tight end Dallas Clark, left tackle Tony Ugoh and linebackers Freddy Keiaho and Tyjuan Hagler though they will be without All-Pro defensive end Dwight Freeney who is on injured reserve after having foot surgery.
The Colts were ranked third in the league in points scored during the regular season, averaging 28.1 points per game while the Chargers were right on their heels, ranking fifth in scoring, averaging 25.8 points per contest.
Both teams also field stellar defenses with Indianapolis recording the NFL's top-ranked scoring defense, allowing their opponents to score a microscopic 16.4 points per game, thanks in large part to the league’s Defensive Player of the Year, safety Bob Sanders.
The Chargers however, aren’t far behind the Colts in this category either, ranking fifth in points allowed, giving up a measly 17.8 points per game themselves.
The Charger may be without their best receiver as All-Pro tight end Antonio Gates injured his left big toe in last week's victory over the Titans and is uncertain for this game.
Here is a look at tonight’s Key Trends, followed by my NFL Betting Free Picks.
Key Chargers Trends
The Chargers are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a S.U. win.
The Chargers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
The Chargers are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a ATS win.
Key Colts Trends
The Colts are 4-0 ATS in their last four playoff games.
The Colts are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0.
The Colts are 5-1 ATS in their last six playoff games as a favorite.
Key Totals Trends
The Under is 5-0 in Chargers last five games in January.
The Over is 4-0 in Chargers last four games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
The Over is 4-0 in Colts last four games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0.
The Under is 5-0 in Colts last five games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
Key Head-to-Head Trends
The Chargers are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings in Indianapolis.
The Chargers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings.
The Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
Analysis: Okay NFL betting community, this game is an absolute ‘lock’. Although I like the Colts to pull out the victory in the end, I think this game has ‘last-second field goal’ written all over it. These teams are too evenly matched – and have defenses that are just too good - for either team to win by 10 points. Take the Chargers to cover the spread easily.
NFL Free Picks: Chargers +9 Points/Over 45 Total Points
01:00 PM EST Football Spreads
San Diego Chargers +9 -110
Indianapolis Colts -9 -110
Over 45 -110
Under 45 -110
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