Posted on 1/11/2008 1:34:05 PM
NFL Divisional Playoff Betting - Is Seahawks Defense That Good?

Taking a look at the opposing offenses faced by both Green bay and Seattle during the regular 2007 NFL betting season offers a few interesting insights into the way we may not want to give such high accolades to teams based on numbers alone. Seattle’s defense is vaunted for their hard-hitting, aggressive play and quick moves to the ball. Since Seattle’s running game took a hit when Shaun Alexander had a change of heart, or a heart removal, the team has relied mostly on the passing game and the defense to get them wins.

Seattle Seahawks +8 at Green Bay Packers –8

Matt Hasselbeck has been doing a marvelous job, by all accounts, and the defense has been playing great, allowing just 18.2 points per game, but what does that mean? Well, Green Bay’s defense has also allowed 18.2 points per game this season, so does that mean they are equally good? If all things were, equal, one would have to assume so, yes.

We are, however, smarter than that. Still, you’ll hear arguments out there about how the Seahawks defense is better than Green Bay’s and vice versa. Reading online forums, you’ll often hear Seahawks fans spouting off about how the Packers defense is overrated and won’t be able to stop Hasselbeck and his receivers from eating them alive in Green Bay this weekend.

Oh, really? Let’s take a look at the opponents these defenses have played, shall we? Actually, we’ll just take the top half of the league, offensive-wise, and see how our two heroes stacked up against teams who were better at scoring points than at least half of the other teams in the NFL. That should give us some sort of barometer by which to judge.

NFL Divisional Playoffs: Saturday, January 12, 2008 at 4:30 EST

Seattle played just four games against the top half of offenses this season: two against Arizona, one against Pittsburgh and one against New Orleans. Green Bay played seven games against top offenses this season: Dallas, San Diego, Giants and two each against the Vikings and the Lions. Unfortunately, there were no common opponents fitting this category.

Of Seattle’s four games, they were able to win just one, against the Cardinals. Of the Pack’s seven games, they managed to lose just one, to the Cowboys. That says something. But what about playoff teams that each played. How did they fare against those?

Seattle had two games against playoff teams as they struggled to make the playoffs with the easiest schedule in the NFL, and they batted .500. The Packers, meanwhile, played four games against teams who made the postseason, and lost just one of those; that same Dallas game.

Not taking anything away from the Seahawks. They made the postseason and have won a playoff game, albeit against a team that seemed to have used up most of its energy just getting there and stupidly did not fly to the opposite coast for the game until less than 24 hours before kickoff. Still, if you bet on NFL playoffs and are going to bet on this game, if it is the Seahawks defense that is making you lean towards the road team, you might want to think again.

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