Posted on 10/16/2007 1:26:04 PM

NFL Betting Week 7 Picks

By D.S. Williamson

Check Out BetUS Football Sports Radio HERE!

Okay, so the first thing that makes sense to me is that somebody, anybody, preferably with a real talent for song-writing comes up with a small ditty for the New England Patriots.  Personally, I think that Belichick should be banned from the NFL because of the whole spying thing, but did you see what they did to the Dallas Cowboys this past Sunday?

The plays to Wes Welker and Donte Stallworth were absolute beauties.  They are easily one of the best teams I have ever seen in my life. Save for the early 1990’s Cowboys and maybe some of those Montana teams in the 1980’s, I can’t think of another team capable of beating these guys. Welker is the key. With that extra wide receiver out there - - one with a penchant for making big plays - - the Patriots are unstoppable. No defense will be able to contain them. That means they win the Super Bowl, right?

As wifey would say to her red-headed friend from the Valley - - Not so fast, Becky!

Injuries usually affect every team in football and the Patriots are about two injuries away from being the greatest team since the Spartans in that movie 300 to losing in the first-round of the AFC playoffs.  Should Tom Brady hurt himself unexpectedly or should Welker or Moss hurt some part of their vastly talented anatomies, the Patriots are a virtual lock to lose in the first round.

They’ll still win the NFC East but you might as well write them off before the first game of the playoffs. Their defense is okay - - not great - - just okay.  That means that Brady and Welker and Moss have to keep firing bullets.  The more bullets you fire; the better chance that some good defense, like Pittsburgh, will steal your gun.

Not the greatest metaphor I’ve ever come up with, but it works, right?

Now that my rant regarding the Super Pats is out of the way, it’s time to get to the down-low and tell all you NFL bettors what’s going on this weekend!

 

Arizona Cardinals (+7.5) vs. Washington Redskins (-7.5) Another question to red-headed Becky - - are you kidding me?  Seriously, there is no way that a team led by Tim Rattay is going to beat the Redskins.  First, the ‘Skins are coming off a game against one of the better teams in the NFL, the Green Bay Packers.  It was a game that they should have won.  They go back to D.C.  They get to play a quarterback who wasn’t with a team just a bout fourteen days ago.  This is a ridiculous line, the ‘Skins are going to maul this team.  There’s no trend to speak of here because when you’re down to your third string quarterback and you’re going up against one of the best defenses in the NFL you got no chance.  Cardinal fans, this one’s over all ready!

Kansa City Chiefs (+3) vs. Oakland Raiders (-3) What a goofy line.  The Chiefs actually played well this past Sunday beating the Cincinnati Bengals.  The Raiders had their moments versus the Chargers. One of the craziest trends in the NFL is that the Raiders, who do have a solid D, can’t seem to win against their NFC West opponents.  They’ve lost 16 straight. No, I’m not making that up. What kind of trend is that?  Eventually, the Raiders are going to break that trend, right?  They have to - - right?  I’m just not sure when and I think that Hermm Edwards might have too much upstairs between the ears for young Lane Kiffin, at least, at this point in young Kiffin’s career.  The Chiefs love to beat the Raiders too.  That’s another trend.  With that being written, this one sure feels like a good money-line bet on the Chiefs to me.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2) vs. Detroit Lions (+2) There is only one magical word when it comes to this game, OVER.  Yes, that’s it. OVER.  Repeat that word in your head again and again and again…well, you get the idea.  Nobody can stop Detroit from scoring because John Kitna has too many weapons.  Nobody can NOT score against Detroit because Detroit doesn’t play defense.  I think that you fantasy football lovers should be all over Garcia in this one.  He might run for three hundred yards and throw for another one-hundred or so.  The middle is going to be so wide-open, Garcia might be feeling like he’s on a tread-mill.  In any case, both teams have gotten way too lucky this year for me to pick the winner either straight-up or against the spread.  And, since there isn’t a real trend to speak of, other than Lions games going over on artificial surfaces - - well, I guess that is a good trend!  So, here’s the pick = OVER 43.5.  That number could go down before the end of the third quarter.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-4) vs. Denver Broncos (+4) This is the sort of game that NFL betting dreams are made of.  The Broncos don’t have a home-field advantage any more.  The Steelers are coming off of a bye week.  Just so you know, the Steelers off of a bye week is an excellent play every single year.  Their coaching staff prepares better than any other team in the NFL during a bye week and they have enough veterans to keep their heads together after the bye week.  Wow.  I can’t believe the line is only four in this one.  The trend says bet the Steelers off of a bye week.  I say bet the Steelers heavily to cover the 4 points.

Indianapolis Colts (-4) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (+4) There isn’t a great trend regarding this game because the Jaguars are one of those teams that can kill you if you stick with them.  However, one trend that I’ve nailed a few times in the past couple years is that when the Jaguars score over 22 points they tend to beat or cover spreads.  I like their chances to score over 22 in this game only because their little cannon-ball of an RB, Maurice Jones-Drew, is much better than anyone thought.  I also like the fact that their QB, David Garrard, doesn’t make that many mistakes.  In fact, I’m going to wait and see if the Colts get more money in this one because I’m feeling the money-line.

Other Games:

Chicago Bears (+4.5) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (- 4.5) The main trend regarding the Bears is that when they play against a fellow NFC team they usually do very well.  That was before the Bears D turned into the next coming of Jell-O and the Eagles got Brian Westbrook back and Kevin Curtis turned into Steve Largent with speed.  This is another one that’s over.  Forget it.  McNabb eats that Bears D for lunch.
Minnesota Vikings (+9.5) vs. Dallas Cowboys ( - 9.5) The Cowboys stay at home and will be looking to exploit the Viking’s pass defense which is terrible.  They shouldn’t have an issue in this game except Adrian Peterson for the Vikings is really that good.  Still, I can’t pick against the ‘Boys in a game where they will be looking to exploit a weakness with their strength – passing to Jason Witten and Terrell Owens.  One trend that might scare you off this game is that Dallas is 1 – 16 at home against the spread in a game where the total is more than 44 points.  The total in this game is 46.  Scary, Beckster!  Scary!
New York Jets (+6.5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5) The trend says that the Bengals lose in games that become shoot-outs.  Since their defense is horrid and the Jets offense is good enough to lay at least 28 on the Bungles, I’m going to call another money-line game and say that the Bengals lose outright in this one.  Mangenius will get his kids together to win the second game of the season.

Until next week, good luck!

BetUS Sportsbook is your home for NFL Football odds, lines and wagering. We’ve got all your NFL news and information. Join BetUS today to bet on football.