Posted on
12/8/2007 7:59:52 PM
NFL Football Betting – Panthers at Jaguars
By Charles Jay
BetUS NFL football betting odds: JACKSONVILLE -10.5, Total 38
NOTABLE STAT: Carolina has scored 13.5 ppg over its last six games
KEY NFL FOOTBALL BETTING TREND: Carolina is on a long 20-6-1 ATS run as a road dog
(For more useful stats and trends, visit our special Matchup Tool)
The Jacksonville Jaguars (8-4 SU & ATS), coming off a tough loss to Indianapolis but still very much in the AFC wild card picture, have a chance to take a definitive step in that direction on Sunday when they play host to the Carolina Panthers (5-7 SU & ATS), fresh off a much-needed win, at Jacksonville Municipal Stadium (grass) in a game scheduled for a 1 PM EST start.
In the BetUS NFL betting odds, the Jaguars are listed at -10.5, with the total posted at 38 points.
Here are some NFL betting stats and trends relative to this matchup:
* CARO has won and covered one of its last six games
* CARO has played seven of its last nine games UNDER the total
* CARO has won and covered six of its last eight road games
* CARO has played four of its last six road games UNDER the total
* CARO is 20-6-1 ATS in its last 27 games as a road underdog
* JAX has covered five of its last six games
* JAX has played six straight games OVER the total
* JAX has covered 10 of its last 15 home games
From the fundamental matchup standpoint, this looks very problematic for the Panthers, who had scored only 50 points in the previous five games before getting 31 with the aid of six turnovers against San Francisco last Sunday. Jacksonville has allowed more than 17 points at home only to Indianapolis, and Carolina, its expansion partner back in 1995, has converted only 36% of third-down situations. Fred Taylor (812 yards) managed to crack the 100-mark last week against the Colts. David Garrard (67% accuracy) threw an interception in Indy, but it was his only one of the year. And defensive tackle Marcus Stroud, who has been serving a suspension, is back in action for the Jags this week.
But the funny thing is, Carolina seems to turn into a different team when they go on the road. The Panthers, as bad as they seem to be, are nonetheless 4-2 ATS away from home, scoring 20 ppg, six better than they do in Charlotte. That continues the recent history, in which this team is 20-6-1 ATS as a road dog. In a group of teams at 5-7, they're still not completely out of the playoff race. The pass rush did wake up last week, albeit against Trent Dilfer. Carolina has enough run defense (3.8 ypc allowed) to potentially slow th Jags' ground forces. Vinny Testaverde, at age 44, provides steadier leadership than either inept David Carr or rookie Matt Moore. And Jacksonville may just be flat after a big emotional effort against AFC South rival Indianapolis last week.
This is a lot of points to lay against a team that doesn't necessarily run and hide from a lot of teams. Since Carolina has shown it can go on the road and perform well, we'll take the double digits with the Panthers, the 10.5-point underdog in the BetUS NFL football betting odds.
JAY'S PLAY: CAROLINA
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(Charles Jay of TotalActionExtra.com is a member of the NFL too - that is, "not for long" if you don't get results. He is now a regular contributor to the BetUS.com Locker Room)