Up to NFL Betting Trends

posted December 21, 2007 at 16:23 in NFL Betting Trends

What a difference a year makes.

Last season, the Chicago Bears, (5-9 SU, 5-9 ATS, 7-7 O/U) were well on their way to making a Super Bowl appearance with the league’s most overpowering defense and a punt returner for the ages, while the young Green Bay Packers finished strong but missed out on the postseason by a whisker.

Now, the Bears are out of this season’s playoffs, while the Packers are looking like one of the top contenders for a Super Bowl berth.

To illustrate my point, look no further than last week’s games involving both teams. The Packers pounded the St. Louis Rams 33-14 on the road last week while the Bears lost to the Minnesota Vikings 20-13 on the road last week.

The Packers, (12-2 SU, 11-2-1 ATS, 10-4 O/U), are ranked third in overall offense, averaging 376.1 yards and 28.1 points per game while the Bears are ranked a pathetic 25th in overall offense, averaging 298.4 yards and 19.0 points per game.

Defensively, the Packers have also surpassed the Bears. Green Bay is ranked 11th in overall defense, allowing 320.0 yards and just 17.4 points per game to their opponents while the Bearspowerful defense from a season ago is now ranked 29th overall, allowing 356.3 yards and 22.6 points per game.

The Bears have the worst rushing attack in all of football after foolishly trading away their two-time 1,300-yard rusher, Thomas Jones to the New York Jets.

Packers quarterback Brett Favre is 13-2 all-time in Chicago.

Here is a look at tonight’s key trends followed by my NFL Betting Free Picks:

Key Packers Trends

The Packers are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

The Packers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.

The Packers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a SU win of more than 14 points.

Key Bears Trends

The Bears are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a S.U. loss.

The Bears are 3-7 ATS in their last ten games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game.

The Bears are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games overall.

Key Totals Trends

The Over is 4-0 in Packers last four games following a S.U. win.

The Over is 4-0 in Packers last four games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.

The Under is 4-0 in Bears last four games as a home underdog.

The Over is 5-1 in Bears last six games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.

Key Head-to-Head Trends

The Packers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight meetings in Chicago.

The Packers are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 meetings.

The Road team is 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven meetings.

Analysis: Maybe it’s me, but I fully expect the Bears to cover the 10.5-point spread at home here against the Packers. No, the Bears don’t throw the ball well and can’t run it either, while the Packers are now doing both proficiently, but something tells me the Bears are going to cover this spread on the “pride factor” alone.

NFL Free Picks: Bears +10.5 Points/Under 38.5 Total Points

01:00 PM EST NFL Betting

Green Bay Packers -10½ -110

Chicago Bears +10½ -110

Over 38½ -110

Under 38½ -110

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