Posted on
12/14/2007 3:16:42 PM
NFL Betting Action - Buffalo Bills vs. Cleveland Browns
By Tim Furious
Preview If you had told me at the beginning of the season that I would select Buffalo-Cleveland as my game of the week, I would’ve slapped you in the face and set your pants on fire. But with the Bills surging in to the AFC wildcard race, they face the Browns. Whoever wins this game essentially controls their own destiny. I love the Bills’ feistiness, but can they topple the Browns, who are 5-1 SU at home?
Buffalo Offense vs. Cleveland Defense
Let the Trent Edwards era officially begin! After Dick Jauron properly gave J.P. Losman a fighting chance to win his job back, Losman took that opportunity and pretended like it was a football. He threw it away. Edwards was sharp against a pitiful Miami secondary and threw for 165 yards and four touchdowns. Cleveland has the worst secondary in the AFC, allowing 251.4 passing yards per game.
The return of Marshawn Lynch is a welcome one to the Buffalo offense. He is a power-house, especially considering his size, and can seize control of the clock against a rushing defense that allows 130.4 yards per game. Lynch is averaging 3.9 yards per carry while his backup, Fred Jackson, is averaging 5.8 yards per carry. Expect Jauron to keep the faith in the Buffalo rushing attack to take pressure off of Edwards.
Cleveland Offense vs. Buffalo Defense
Buffalo’s defensive stats are misleading. They may allow the second most passing yards in the AFC (251.4 yards per game), but they only give up 22.4 points per game. However, if you take away the two games when they get trampled by the New England Patriots, they only give up 17.9 points per game. They are an efficient red zone defense that is the epitome of a bend-don’t-break mentality.
The Buffalo defense has 24 takeaways, including 15 interceptions. Terrence McGee doesn’t get enough credit, and he will be matched against the dazzling talent that is Braylon Edwards all day long. That is trouble for even McGee as Braylon can stretch the field and runs crisp routes, while using his decisive height advantage over McGee to his advantage.
The other problem for Buffalo is stopping Jamal Lewis in the red-zone. Lewis has been a bulldozer close to the goal-line all year, and can hammer his way in to the endzone for at least one touchdown.
Buffalo’s defense is marginally better than Cleveland’s in that it is tough, resilient and aggressively fast. They will have to be at their best, with their season on the line, against an insanely efficient Cleveland offense. The Browns average 27.7 points per game. Bet on Buffalo sending plenty of blitzes to stop Anderson from setting the scoreboard ablaze.
NFL Betting Trends
-Buffalo is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games
-Buffalo is 5-15 SU its last 22 road games
-Cleveland is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 home games
-Total has gone OVER in 5 of Cleveland’s last 6 games at home
Final Verdict
The Bills are a wily 9-4 ATS team that has all the tools to be good down the road. However, the Bills betting bandwagon has to steer clear of hoping on the Trent Edwards expressway too fast. He is still a rookie, and playing in Browns stadium is a tough task for anyone. Their only home loss was against Pittsburgh in Week One, so don’t bet on any miracles for Buffalo. The Browns are simply too potent on offense for the Bills to match point-wise, despite Cleveland’s obvious ineptitude on the defensive side of the ball.
Buffalo Bills (7-6) vs. Cleveland Browns (8-5)
Sunday, December 16th --- Cleveland Browns Stadium --- 1:00pm EST
Opening NFL Betting Line: Cleveland -5.5 (47)
NFL Betting Free Pick: Buffalo 17 Cleveland 28
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