Up to NFL Articles

posted January 18, 2008 at 13:16 in NFL Articles

Somewhere, somehow, the football Gods still hate Marty Schottenheimer. The Chargers are enjoying their must successful playoff run since 1994 under – yep – the football genius of Norv Turner! They made the Titans forgettable. Their backups beat the defending World Champion Colts. Can LaDanian and Norv Turner lead the Chargers to the promised land? That all depends on how they stack up against the greatest team of all time.

San Diego Offense vs. New England Defense

Nose-tackle Vince Wilfork may be one of the baddest men on the field, but he is getting little support from the linebacking corps in stopping the run. The Patriots rush defense allows 98.3 yards per game, but that is largely due to the fact that most teams abandon the run in an effort to stay in the game as Brady burns down the scoreboard.

The Chargers rush for 127.4 ground yards per game, and keep most of their rushing to the edges. This will keep the pressure on Bruschi and Thomas to stuff the run, and both have been vulnerable during this season. Bruschi was noticeably out of position against the rushing assault of Jacksonville.

Some betting investors might think that Michael Turner and Darren Sproles are suitable replacements in the horrifying case that LDT cannot go. Both rush for over 4.4 yards per carry, but nothing can replace what LaDanian brings to the table. Don’t fool yourself.

Making matters much, much worse for San Diego’s betting faithful is that Phillip Rivers missed practice Wednesday because of a knee injury that kept him out of the fourth quarter against Indy. Rivers threw for 3,152 passing yards, 21 touchdowns and 15 interceptions this season. He was also sacked 22 times. He has been cocky and brash, and though some of you out there may like that style, quarterbacks who source their play on emotion like that get dismantled by Belichik.

Billy Volek is a career backup and I don’t need to waste your time or mine in explaining why you should stay away from the Chargers if Volek gets the start. The Patriots are superb against the pass, holding teams to only 190.4 passing yards per game. The Chargers looked impressive last week only after Bob Sanders went out of the game, and last season’s playoffs were impenetrable evidence that Sanders completely changes the Colts defense for the better. The Patriots are at full health and have phenomenal depth. Unless LDT is ready to roll in this one, and avenge the trash-talking loss in last year’s post-season, the Chargers will be anemic on offense.

New England Offense vs. San Diego Defense

Lost in the “Oh my gosh, it’s Billy Volek!” headlines of the week is the fact that the Chargers defense was mediocre last week. In fact, they’ve been mediocre all season. They allow the 5th fewest points in the league with 17.8, but allow 209.0 passing yards and 137.4 rushing yards on the road. Simply put – New England will have no problem marching the ball all over Merriman and company.

Laurence Maroney has caught a tremendous amount of heat from his own fans for failing to run straight and break open big runs. Sorry to say, but he simply does not have the speed to break open a huge sprint-to-the-finish. He averages 4.5 yards per carry which will be enough to keep the San Diego defense honest.

The problem for San Diego is their 3-4 defense calls for far too many blitzes. This leaves the middle of the field open and vulnerable, and that’s exactly where Wes Welker gets that money. Welker averages 10.5 yards per catch and burned the Chargers in Week 2 with 8 receptions for 91 yards. Brady will find both him and Benjamin Watson underneath in the flats for chippy gains that deflate a San Diego defense which is only effective when they have momentum. Building that momentum against this formidable front-five is out of the question.

NFL Betting Trends

-San Diego is 8-0 ATS in its last 8 games

-San Diego is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 road games

-San Diego is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing New England

-New England is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games

-New England is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home

-total has gone UNDER in 5 of New England’s last 5 gamest at home

Final Verdict

New England has struggled against the line for the past two months, and it’s hard to believe San Diego will go down without a fight. The Week 2 meeting between these two is not a fair representation of how these teams will play each other this weekend, because the Chargers got off to an insanely rough start. San Diego has murdered the spread for the past eight games, so one would believe that San Diego would have no problem covering this weekend, right?

Almost. Perhaps the only case you can make for New England against the spread is the fact that San Diego plays abysmally in the cold. Of their past eight games, seven were either in warm weather or domes. Only one game (vs. Denver) was played in cold weather, and they won that game soundly. Last year, even in the cold, the Chargers only lost 24-21. Expect this to be a titanic struggle, but even the Patriots can’t overcome these betting odds.

San Diego Chargers (11-5) vs. New England Patriots (16-0)

Sunday, January 20th --- Gillette Stadium, Foxboro --- 3:00pm EST

Opening NFL Betting Line: New England -15.5 (51)

NFL Playoff Free Pick: San Diego 21 New England 31

> > Check AFC Championship Odds

The 2007 NFL betting season is here in full force! If you like to bet on the NFL, you are in the best possible place for online betting. The BetUS sportsbook has NFL odds up on a ton of futures, and you will also find NFL lines up for early games as well. Join BetUS today and we'll help guide you right through to Super Bowl XLII and beyond!