posted November 13, 2007 at 16:29 in NFL Free Picks
NFL Betting - The Numbers Can Lie
Football is a game of numbers, statistics and betting trends. But the thing is that some numbers can lie to you, and the savvy NFL betting investor has to look at more than just stats if they want to reap some rewards from their investments. Here’s a look back at Week 10 as we at BetUS.com provide you with the NFL football artillery you will need to attack the football betting lines.
Minnesota Vikings (3-5) vs. Green Bay Packers (8-1)
Score: 34-0
Deceiving Key Stat: Minnesota is third in rushing defense (75.9 yards per game)
True Key Stat: Minnesota is dead last against the pass (285.9 yards per game)
This game proved why you have to throw stats out the window sometimes. Minnesota had one of the best rushing defenses going up against unheralded third-stringer Ryan Grant who tore them apart for 119 rush yards and a touchdown. Whenever they face a team that has a smart and lethal quarterback, Minnesota’s rushing attack won’t have enough defenders in the box to stop the run either.
You cannot simply bet that Minnesota will always be able to stop the run, because a guy like Favre, Cutler, Brady or Roethlisberger can completely shred the secondary with their deep ball. Favre dismantled the atrocious Vikings secondary for 368 passing yards and three touchdowns.
Making matters worse for the Vikings is that Adrian Peterson has a torn ligament in his knee which will put him out for at least one game. That is terrible news for a team that went 0-8 on third down and 0-3 on fourth down against the Packers last weekend.
Next game: Oakland vs. Minnesota (-5.5), Carolina vs. Green Bay (-10.5)
Jacksonville Jaguars (6-3) vs. Tennessee Titans (6-3)
Score: Jacksonville 28-13
Deceiving Key Stat: Tennessee is fourth in rushing defense (75.9 yards per game)
True Key Stat: Tennessee is twenty-second in league in total offensive yards (297.9 yards per game)
Heading in to their Week 10 tilt against Jacksonville, the writing seemed to be on the wall. Tennessee was the best team against the run (heading in to the game) and Jacksonville was a team whose offense struggled when it couldn’t get its rushing game going. Checkmate, right? Wrong. The Jags obliterated the defensive line of the Titans for 166 yards on the ground.
Meanwhile, Vince Young threw for 257 yards and a score, while the rushing attack sputtered with 62 yards on the ground. The Titans are way too inconsistent offensively to warrant betting attention. And, as much as you may want to invest in Vince Young’s superhuman abilities at times, he is brutal when trying to lead a comeback this season.
Next game: San Diego vs. Jacksonville (-3), Tennessee vs. Denver (-3)
Buffalo Bills (5-4) vs. Miami Dolphins (0-9)
Score: Buffalo 13-10
Deceiving Key Stat: Buffalo allows 359.7 total yards defensively (28th in NFL)
The Truth: Buffalo is ninth in points allowed with 18.4 per game
The thing about the Buffalo defense is that you can march on them all you want, but the front-seven is fast, explosive and well-coached. They scored a pivotal safety on Cleo Lemon to put the Bills in a position to win against Miami. The Bills secondary also ranks third in the AFC with 12 picks and Terrence McGee is becoming a fearsome hitter. Don’t just look at Buffalo’s defensive numbers when decide which side of the line you want to place your hard-earned betting dollars. This fast and ferocious defense is out-performing the numbers they register on the stat sheet.
Next game: New England (-14.5) vs. Buffalo, Miami vs. Philadelphia (-10.5)
Indianapolis (7-2) vs. San Diego Chargers (5-4)
Score: San Diego 23-21
Deceiving Game Stat: San Diego wins 23-21
The Truth: read below
The Colts were playing with an injury depleted roster and were put on their heels early in the game. But even with two special teams touchdowns, LaDanian Tomlinson rushing for once score and 76 yards and Manning turning the ball over six times, the Colts STILL almost managed to win the game. That’s how bad the Chargers are. They had everyone on their side, including God, and they still managed to almost give the game away. Why is nobody talking about this?
Philip Rivers threw 13-for-24 and 86 yards with zero touchdowns and two picks. The offense in San Diego is terrible, with or without LDT. Rivers is simply not ready quarterback. He has weapons in Vincent Jackson, Antonio Gates, Chris Chambers and Tomlinson, but still can’t take over the game. San Diego averages 239.0 passing yards per game, which ranks them 25th overall.
Meanwhile the Colts played without Marvin Harrison, Tony Ugoh, Aaron Moorhead, Dallas Clark, Anthony Gonzalez, Freddy Keiaho, Raheem Brock and a slew of other starters and have lost Dwight Freeney midway through the game. And they still almost managed to win. The Colts are resilient, and will find strength from these two crucial AFC losses, but your betting dollars are safe elsewhere. San Diego is terrible and the Colts are simply too injury depleted to contend right now.
Next game: Kansas City vs. Indianapolis (-14.5), San Diego vs. Jacksonville (-3)
Cleveland Browns (5-4) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-2)
Score: Pittsburgh 31-28
Deceiving Key Stat: Cleveland ranks fourth in offense with 28.3 points per game
True Key Stat: they have the worst defense in the league (410.6 yards, 29.3 points per game)
Cleveland is a really fun team to watch because Derek Anderson has exploded on to the NFL scene with Kellen Winslow and Braylon Edwards making miraculous plays week in and week out. The Browns surprised the Steelers at home by leading 21-9 at the half, but the Browns showed their true colors. Pittsburgh outscored Cleveland 22-7 in the second half to win the game. Big Ben Roethlisberger had the play of the game by running a 30 yard touchdown in, and it’s always a pleasure to watch a 6-foot-5, 241 pound white guy run down the field like that.
All hope is not lost for the Browns yet, however. There is some massive parity in the AFC, and the Browns are amongst the top-8 teams in that conference. They face the Baltimore Ravens, who are simply atrocious offensively. The Browns are an easy bet when they face teams that have trouble running the score because Derek Anderson can put the game so far out of reach. The problem is when they face a team like Pittsburgh or New England, and have their offensive output matched.
Pittsburgh is not without their deceiving stats as well. They rank first in passing yards allowed with a surprising 157.4 yards against, but that includes two dud performances by Seattle and Baltimore so the numbers are slightly skewed. There is no reason not to believe in their rushing defense, however. They allow 72.0 rushing yards against, but their secondary is a glaring weakness, as is shown by Derek Anderson’s three touchdown performance in the first half.
Before you rush out to attack the lines in Week 11, take a closer look at the stats before you place your hard earned betting dollars down. As always, BetUS.com will be here to bring more order to the chaos and confusion in our locker room. Check back daily to keep up to date on all your NFL betting needs!
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