Posted on 10/15/2007 3:43:16 PM

NFL Free Picks: New York Giants (3-2) vs. Atlanta Falcons (1-4)

By Tim Furious

New York Giants (3-2) vs. Atlanta Falcons (1-4)

Monday, October 15th --- Georgia Dome, Atlanta --- 8:30pm EST

Opening NFL Line: New York -3.5 (43)

Preview

The Giants put a three game winning streak on the line as they head to the dirty south to take on the Atlanta Falcons in the Georgia Dome. The erratic play of Eli Manning has steadies, while Joey Harrington has continued to underachieve at an epic level. Will Manning falter on the road, or will Joey erupt in a heroic effort to save his job from Byron Leftwich?

New York Offense vs. Atlanta Defense

The most glaring defensive weakness of Atlanta is not the 325.4 yards they give up per game, nor the hamstring injury which is slowing down linebacker Keith Brooking. The biggest fault on Atlanta’s defense is DeAngelo Hall’s emotional temper. Hall is a great ball hawk, but he plays with too much emotion and is vulnerable to showing his frustration when he gets beaten.

The bad news only gets worse as Plaxico Burress, who has 410 yards and 7 touchdowns, has the height, speed and chemistry with Eli Manning to produce on fades and post routes in the corners of the endzone. Plax has scored in every single game this season.

The rushing defense in Atlanta has been awful for the past two seasons, and they are getting owned in the trenches. The Dirty Birds give up 121.2 yards on the ground alone and the Giants have two, fresh runners in Derrick Ward and big Brandon Jacobs who have both helped steady a balanced Giants offense that gains a solid 91.6 yards on the ground per game.

The Giants simply have too many weapons with Eli Manning clicking with all his receivers. If the passing game falters in the least, Coughlin has faith in Ward to gain yards on the turf. Eli Manning has been consistent and productive, while cutting down on his mistakes. Bet on the three game winning streak to continue as Eli continues to make steady improvements in his own game.

Atlanta Offense vs. New York Defense

The Falcons will have the impossible task of fending off a hungry Giants defensive line without Todd Weiner and Wayne Gandy, their starting tackles. The Atlanta front line is slow and clumsy to begin with, but it just lost its two most important cornerstones. Osi Umenyiora and Michael Strahan must be chomping at the bit to crumple the pocket against an easily frazzled Joey Harrington.

The thing that kills me about Joey Harrington is the way his feet chatter in the pocket, as if he’s standing on hot coals or something. Despite the home field advantage, Harrington is going to be living a nightmare when Osi breaks through to chase him around in the pocket. The Falcons only manage 199.8 yards per game, but that is offset largely by a 361 outburst by Harrington against Carolina in Week 3.

Nobody, and I mean nobody, is scared of Joey and that means big trouble for Warrick Dunn and Jerious Norwood. Both have speed and cutback ability, but the linebackers and defensive ends on the Giants side have the speed to close the backdoor to the edges. The Giants defense isn’t spectacular, but it matches up extremely well against Atlanta, especially with those crucial injuries on the Falcons offensive line. Those two losses will inevitably lead to no gaps for Dunn and Norwood, and no pocket for chattering Joey Harrington.

NFL Betting Trends

-NYG and Atlanta are 3-2 ATS this season

-NYG is 4-1 ATS in their last five road games

-Atlanta is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home gas

-Atlanta is 5-2 in their last 7 games when playing NYG

Final Verdict

The Giants have too many weapons on offense for the befuddled Falcons defense to deal with. Joey Harrington looked awful last weekend, and Byron Leftwich did not look any better in relief. With a patch-work offensive line, and two awful quarterbacks, the Giants defense will stomp the Falcons in to the ground as Eli marches the offense up and down the field at will.

NFL Free Pick: New York 28 Atlanta 17

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