Posted on 2/1/2008 11:56:47 AM

NFL Football Betting – Yes, the Giants Will Win it

By Charles Jay

BetUS NFL football betting odds: NEW ENGLAND -11.5, Total 54

NOTABLE STAT: Two catches for Randy Moss in the post-season

KEY NFL BETTING TREND: The Giants have won ten straight road games

(For more useful trends and stats, visit our unique Matchup Tool)

The New York Giants (13-6 SU & ATS) try to throw a "giant-sized" road block in the way of history, and try to establish a little history of their own, when they face off against the New England Patriots (18-0 SU, 10-8 ATS) in the Superbowl, which is scheduled to kick off at 6:20 PM ET at the University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, AZ.

In the BetUS Super Bowl betting odds, the Patriots are listed at -11.5, with the total posted at 54 points.

Here are the NFL betting odds trends that truly mean something in this game:

* NE is 18-0 SU

* NE is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games

* NY has won its last 10 road games SU

* NY has covered nine straight as a VISITING team (forget London)

Looking at the Patriots is a lesson in how the media builds credentials, and influences the public. As New England was being trumpeted as possibly the "greatest team of all-time," there were very inflated lines for them to overcome. The result: an 8-0 start against the number turned into a 2-8 ATS finish. There were wins by four points against Indianapolis, three against Philadelphia and Baltimore, just ten against the lowly Jets in a "revenge" game, and nine against San Diego, where New England may have been very fortunate that Phillip Rivers was literally limping (indeed, he had knee surgery after the game) and LaDanian Tomlinson begged out of the action, possibly quitting on his team, and touchdown opportunities became field goals.

And then there was the three-point win over New York, in which the Giants led by 12 at one point, then watched that lead slip away. New York had clinched a playoff spot already, but the Pats wanted the game badly, although they would never let on how much beforehand. Even in defeat, however, the game may have been one of many turns in the Giants' season. They went at it with all they had, even though they could have just rested players. Some people criticized the move; it was opined by some Big Apple sportswriters that Coughlin was risking his job if he got players injured.

Coughlin may not win the coach of the year award. But that was a 'coach of the year" move. He knew his team needed confidence, and he rolled the dice to see if they could perform. Not that they were without confidence - the Giants had already won seven straight road games. What they proved against the Patriots was that they could play with the best. And they took that into the playoffs with them.

They added three more road wins in the post-season.

If you saw the way this team managed the elements against Green Bay, while New England held on against a team with crippled stars, you wouldn't have known who was the undefeated team and who was the wildcard entry.

To be fair, New England has found a certain level of offensive efficiency with its running game revved up - Lawrence Maroney had rushed for more than 100 yards in four of his last five games, including 122 in each of the playoff contests. With Maroney fully operational, this is an offense that can sustain drives and play keepaway with the other team. Then again, that's not the kind of approach that brought New England to the point where it was winning games by huge margins.

Teams have made a special effort to limit what Randy Moss can do. In fact, he's averaged just 59 yards over the last eight games, and has just 32 yards receiving in the playoffs. What this has done is forced Tom Brady to find other ways to move the ball, including using Maroney. What it has also done is bring the Pats back toward the opposition as far as margins are concerned, making them look like mere mortals. And made it more difficult to cover those big numbers.

Opposing coaches have been able to keep themselves within earshot that way. Expect it to continue.

The Giants have some attributes that can make them very competitive here:

* They can play a little "smashmouth" with Brandon Jacobs against a New England defense that allowed 4.4 yards per rush. And the emergence of Ahmad Bradshaw has made up for some of the speed that was lost by Derrick Ward's injury.

* They can rush the passer. With 53 sacks, they led the league this season. And the one thing you want to do is keep Brady from being able to stand straight up and be able to scope out his receivers. The Giants can make him throw underneath, and that would lessen the possibility of the big play.

* They will not fold. And now we get around to those ten straight road wins. You can play semantics about whether this is a "road" game. It's not. But that's hardly the point. No, the point is that when you go on an unprecedented run of ten straight road wins, as the Giants have, you are demonstrating that you have something extremely critical if you're going to face a team of New England's caliber - mental toughness. Any team that does what the Giants have done can not be counted out under ANY circumstances.

* They can avoid the big mistake. For this we refer to Eli Manning's 85 passes without an interception in the playoffs. And managing those elements in Green Bay, where it was so cold they almost shouldn't have played, to the tune of 251 yards passing.

Look, I am not the biggest Eli Manning fan in the world. And I realize that he threw 20 interceptions during the regular season, but he is most definitely earning his stripes. If we based our forecast on th supposition that Manning was going to pick this came to come apart, that wouldn't be a very strong foundation to go on.

Not only CAN the Giants be very competitive with New England, they already HAVE been, in the regular season game that meant the most to the Patriots and at a stadium at which the Giants had literally NO home field advantage.

They've got more of a head of steam, they benefit from the rest a little more, they are highly unlikely to be intimidated, and they face a defense that may be extremely capable, but is not in the same league as those offered by past Super Bowl champs like Baltimore and Chicago.

If the Giants can avoid letting New England get off to a big lead, they can do it.

What the hell - they WILL.

JAY'S PLAYS: NY GIANTS +11.5 **** and NY GIANTS to win (+375) ***

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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The 2007 NFL betting season is here in full force! If you like to bet on the NFL, you are in the best possible place for online betting. The BetUS sportsbook has NFL odds up on a ton of futures, and you will also find NFL lines up for early games as well. Join BetUS today and we'll help guide you right through to Super Bowl XLII and beyond!

(Charles Jay of TotalActionExtra.com is a member of the NFL too - that is, "not for long" if you don't get results. He is now a regular contributor to the BetUS.com Locker Room)