Posted on 11/3/2007 10:50:32 PM

NFL Football Betting: Colts at Patriots

By Charles Jay

BetUS NFL football betting line: New England -6.5, Total: 57

NOTABLE STATS: New England 41.4 ppg, Indianapolis 53.9% on third down

KEY NFL FOOTBALL BETTING TRENDS: New England is on a 20-1-1 ATS run on artificial turf; Indianapolis has 14 straight home wins

(For more useful trends, check out our special Matchup Tool)

The New England Patriots are 8-0 straight-up (SU) and 8-0 against the spread (ATS).

The Indianapolis Colts are 7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS.

On Sunday, at 4:15 PM ET at the RCA Dome in the capital city of the great state of Indiana (the Hoosier State, as I've been told a few times since I've been living here), they will tangle in what will be the first time in NFL history that two unbeaten teams with 15 combined wins have faced each other in the regular season.

It is the Game of the Century, at least until the next "Game of the Century.".

It is, quite simply, Super Bowl 41-1/2.

The Patriots are listed at -6.5 in the BetUS NFL football betting odds, with the over/under posted at 57 points.

Let's get this stuff out of the way first...

Here are some interesting stats having to do with this matchup:

* NEW ENGLAND averages 439.5 ypg

* NEW ENGLAND averages 6.5 yards per play (opponents just 4.8)

* INDIANAPOLIS averages 6.1 yards per play (opponents just 4.5)

* NEW ENGLAND has 213 first downs (133 for opponents)

* INDIANAPOLIS has 166 first downs (125 for opponents)

* INDIANAPOLIS converts 53.9% on third down

* NEW ENGLAND defense allows 28.7% on third down

* Tom Brady has 74% completions, 30 TD's, only 2 INT's

* Peyton Manning has 65.5% completions, 13 TD's, 3 INT's

* Brady averages 9.1 yards a pass attempt

* INDIANAPOLIS defense yields 5.3 yards a pass attempt

Here are some of the NFL football betting trends that relate to each team:

* NEW ENGLAND is 8-0 ATS this season

* The total has gone OVER in 8 of New England's last 9 games

* NEW ENGLAND is 7-1 SU & ATS in its last 8 games on the road

* The total has gone OVER in four of New England's last five road games

* INDIANAPOLIS is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games

* INDIANAPOLIS is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home

* INDIANAPOLIS has won 14 straight home games SU

* The total has gone OVER in four of Indianapolis's last six home games

Here is a look at some of the HEAD-TO-HEAD football betting trends as they relate to this rivalry:

* NEW ENGLAND is 17-6-2 ATS in the last 25 games of the series

* NEW ENGLAND is 1-3-1 ATS in the last five meetings

* NEW ENGLAND has won 14 of the last 19 meetings SU

* The total has gone OVER in seven of the last 10 meetings

* NEW ENGLAND is 14-1-1 ATS in its last 16 games as the visitor in this series

* NEW ENGLAND has won 10 of its last 15 SU at Indianapolis

* The total has gone OVER in four of the last five meetings played at Indianapolis

The most glaring trends, if you are looking at this from the standpoint of a Patriots' backer, are not only that the Pats are 14-1-1 ATS when visiting Indy, they are also 17-4 ATS in its last 21 as a road favorite. They have won and covered 13 of their last 14 games on the road, overall. As if that wasn't enough, when it plays on the carpet, this team seems to be at its best. Since the 2000 season, New England is 26-5-1 ATS on artificial turf, and in the last 22 times they've played on that surface (going back to 2003), they are an almost inconceivable 20-1-1 ATS. During all the time I have been handicapping football games (which is about 20 years), the Pats are the best artificial turf team I've seen in the NFL.

On the other hand, I can also tell you something else. The Colts have now beaten New England three straight times.

But let's face it - you and I could sit here and we could handicap this game to death. We could gush over the gaudy numbers of the two teams and explore what might be the "hidden weaknesses." We could use oft-beaten cliché buzzwords like "legacy," talk about everyone's "place in history" and ascribe more meaning to the American Football Conference than the Potsdam Conference (in which there were two powerhouse teams as well, by the way). We could compare the virtues of having either Tom Brady or Peyton Manning in our lineup and argue over who is better between them, and whether they are better than Marino, Montana, Unitas, Staubach, etc. We could speculate as to whether Marvin Harrison and Lawrence Maroney are 100% healthy. We could analyze every stat, every which way, and it wouldn't get us any closer to where we want to be than the words I am about to say to you.

Please pay attention, because I'm about to put this thing into perspective.

There are a lot of people who bet NFL games, and when some of them do so, they operate according to certain principles, whether they be right or wrong. For example, a lot of us used to cash in on Monday Night home underdogs, which came in at a dizzying rate, until it started to even out. Some people will always take the home dog; others might always lay less than a field goal with the home favorite. Some will always bet against a quarterback making his first road start, while others might bet against any team playing its third straight game as the visitor. Some have a tendency to bet teams coming off a bye week, while others will bet against teams who have just played the Monday Night game.

The point is that all these bettors are using certain rules that are based on situations. The results are generally cyclical, because oddsmakers, who have this nasty habit of wanting to earn a profit for their employers, make adjustments over the course of time.

But I will be almost willing to guarantee that for as long as you bet NFL games, you are never, ever going to encounter a situation again where you have a team that:

A) Is the defending Super Bowl champion

B) Is 7-0 on the season

C) Has won eleven straight games

D) Has won 14 straight games at home

E) Has virtually all hands on deck

F) Is quarterbacked by someone who will break dozens of NFL passing records

G) Has beaten the current opponent three straight times

And, as a special added attraction...

...IS ACTUALLY GETTING SIX AND A HALF POINTS ON ITS OWN HOME FIELD IN A FOOTBALL GAME.

For someone like me, who occasionally likes to reach out for a principle that carries a little meaning, that is like a Thanksgiving feast come early; a feast you can have with someone like Charlize Theron or Jennifer Garner. In other words, it is completely unique, and potentially delightful. Please understand - I am not saying that the Colts are the greatest play in the world here. After all, the Pats are sensational, and may prove to be the best team in many years. What I AM saying is that when I find a "one-off opportunity," that is, one that will never avail itself again in my lifetime, I am a fool not to take advantage of it, because if I don't and I lose, I will never forgive myself.

So I am going to grab it. And the points.

On principle.

Oh by the way, I like the OVER as well, though that's without much principle.

JAY'S PLAYS: INDIANAPOLIS *** and OVER 57 * (Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

Another tip - buy some chips and salsa. You'll enjoy the game more.

> > Check Week 9 Odds Here

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(Charles Jay of TotalActionExtra.com is a member of the NFL too - that is, "not for long" if you don't get results. He is now a regular contributor to the BetUS.com Locker Room)