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posted December 21, 2007 at 16:11 in NFL Articles

The Indianapolis Colts, (12-2 SU, 8-6 ATS, 6-8 O/U), have already clinched the No.2 spot in the AFC playoffs, but they will still have their hands full this week with a Houston Texans team that just recorded their biggest win of the season last week by beating the Denver Broncos 31-13.

Now, the Texans, (7-7 SU, 7-7 ATS, 7-6-1 O/U), are desperately seeking their first non-losing season in franchise history – and the Colts are standing in their way.

The Texans have been invigorated by the play of veteran backup quarterback Sage Rosenfels who has led the Texans to consecutive wins while replacing injured starter Matt Schaub. Rosenfels is 3-0 as a starter this year.

Rosenfels’ solid play aside, the Houston Texans are probably smiling smugly to themselves this week after watching last season No. 1 overall draft pick, defensive end Mario Williams have the best game of his young pro career.

Williams, who has nine sacks in his last five games, had a career-high 3 1/2 sacks against Denver to push his AFC-leading total to 13.

Williams, however, has never sacked Manning in three games.

The Colts became the first team in NFL history to put together five consecutive seasons of at least 12 wins, but won’t be resting many regulars in their final two games as head coach Tony Dungy wants to maintain the Colts’ continuity.

The Texans are ranked 12th in overall offense, averaging 339.1 yards and 23.0 points per game and 19th in overall defense allowing 332.8 yards and 22.7 points per game.

The Colts are ranked 4th in overall offense, averaging 363.3 yards and 28.7 points per game. The Colts are ranked second in overall defense allowing 272.9 yards and 16.5 points per game.

The Colts won their fifth consecutive AFC South title by beating the Oakland Raiders 21-14 in Oakland last week.

Here is a look at tonight’s key trends followed by my NFL Betting Free Picks:

Key Texans Trends

The Texans are 4-1 ATS in their last five games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.

The Texans are 4-1 ATS in their last five games in December.

The Texans are 4-1 ATS in their last five games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

Key Colts Trends

The Colts are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0.

The Colts are 4-1 ATS in their last five games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.

The Colts are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games following a S.U. win.

Key Totals Trends

The Over is 6-0 in Texans last six vs. AFC South.

The Over is 8-1 in Texans last nine vs. a team with a winning record.

The Under is 4-1 in Colts last five games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.

The Over is 4-1 in Colts last five games in December.

Key Head-to-Head Trends

The Over is 5-0 in the last five meetings.

The Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Indianapolis.

The Home team is 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings.

Analysis: Maybe it’s me, but I sense a cover in this contest by the Texans. While I don’t think Indianapolis is in danger of losing this game, I’m going with ‘Super Mario’ and the Texans to cover the spread.

NFL Free Picks: Texans +7 Points/Over 45 Total Points

01:00 PM EST NFL Odds

Houston Texans +7 -110

Indianapolis Colts -7 -110

Over 45 -110

Under 45 -110

> > Check Week 16 Odds Here

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