Posted on
1/3/2008 6:27:18 PM
NFL Playoff Betting – Jaguars at Steelers
By Eric Williams
After generally looking like the third-best team in the AFC all season behind the New England Patriots and Indianapolis Colts, the Pittsburgh Steelers, (10-6 SU, 8-8 ATS, 8-8 O/U) are now limping into the postseason looking nothing like the team that opened the regular season with an impressive, revamped offense that put plenty of points on the board in the early going this season.
The Jacksonville Jaguars, (11-5 SU, 11-5 ATS, 11-4 O/U) are looking to make an extended postseason run after years of fielding one of the best defensive teams in all of football but a mediocre offense at best.
Unfortunately for the Steelers, there may not be a worse opponent for them to play right now than the confident Jaguars who beat the Steelers 29-22 on Dec. 16 with Jaguars running back Fred Taylor shredding Pittsburgh’s defense to the tune of 147 yards on 25 carries.
The Steelers will also be without starting running back Willie Parker who suffered a broken leg in Pittsburgh’s next-to-last regular season game.
Parker’s loss has helped the Steelers to go an unimpressive 1-3 in their last four games, with the team’s usually stout defense looking quite ordinary in the process. The Steelers have allowed an average of 28.5 points and 373.0 total yards during the span, more than 15 points and 140 yards above their averages through 12 games.
Not only did the Jaguars finish the regular season with the AFC's top rushing attack, averaging 149.4 yards per game and 4.6 per carry, but the Jaguars got a fine season from first-year full-time starter David Garrard.
Garrard went 9-3 as the starter this season, throwing for 18 touchdowns with just three interceptions, giving him the league's third-highest rated passer behind Tom Brady and Roethlisberger.
One trend working against the Jaguars is the fact that no team has won at Pittsburgh twice in one season in the Steelers' 75-year history.
Here is a look at tonight’s Key Trends, followed by my NFL Betting Free Picks:
Key Jaguars Trends
The Jaguars are 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
The Jaguars are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games on grass.
The Jaguars are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.
Key Steelers Trends
The Steelers are 4-0 ATS in their last four playoff games.
The Steelers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
The Steelers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Key Totals Trends
The Over is 7-0-1 in Jaguars last eight games on grass.
The Over is 4-0-1 in Jaguars last five vs. a team with a winning record.
The Over is 6-0 in Steelers last six home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
The Over is 4-0 in Steelers last four Saturday games.
Key Head-to-Head Trends
The Jaguars are 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings.
The Jaguars are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings in Pittsburgh.
The Home team is 14-5 ATS in their last 19 meetings.
Analysis: I really like the Jaguars in this contest. I think they are playing better football than Pittsburgh at the moment and have a team that is Pittsburgh’s equal in every area and better in some. Still, the fact that the Steelers haven’t been beaten twice at home in the same season by the same team is absolutely mind-blowing – and the reason I’m taking the Steelers to advance.
NFL Free Pick: Pittsburgh 20 Jacksonville 17
08:00 PM EST NFL Odds
Jacksonville Jaguars -2½ -120
Pittsburgh Steelers +2½ EV
Over 39 -110
Under 39 -110
NFL : Playofffs- Wild Card Games
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