Posted on 8/23/2007 5:06:23 PM

Entertainment Props - The '08 Vote - In '07

By Charles Jay

There's some very weird and bizarre stuff going on in politics. In this electoral landscape, states are in a constant effort to be heard and to be relevant. Toward that end, everyone's going crazy in playing games with the presidential primaries.

South Carolina's Republican party, which had a primary scheduled for February 2, has now moved its date up to January 19 (the Democrats are slated for January 29). However, that creates a problem for a couple of other states. Iowa, which has a caucus rather than a primary, has committed itself to be ahead of everyone else. "Iowa will go first. That is the bottom line," says the state's governor, Chet Culver. That can only mean he will do his best to ensure that South Carolina is NOT first. On top of all that, New Hampshire's state law mandates that it stage the first primary in the nation (not be confused with a caucus) which virtually guarantees that a move from January 22 to January 12 will be established.

Both the Republican and Democratic national committees have indicated that the states scheduling primaries before February 5 would have the number of delegates eligible to vote at their respective national conventions cut in half. But it gets increasingly difficult to do that when states that will play a major role in the election ignore that. For example, Florida's primary is scheduled for January 29. California has wanted to move up to become more relevant. Remember, the winners of the earlier primaries will have momentum - and money - to take into later primaries, so contenders will drop off and the races may be, for all intents and purposes, over by the middle of February.

Now they may be largely decided prior to February 1, which concerns a lot of people because 20 states will go to the polls on February 5. And things could get even earlier before all is said and done.

Iowa's caucus had been set for January 14, because the leaders of both parties in that state wanted it to be eight days before New Hampshire. But if New Hampshire moves up, that will bring Iowa to January 4 at the latest, which means intense campaigning would have to take place during the holidays. That's not practical, so mid-December may actually make more sense. I told you it was crazy.

Iowa's governor insists there is no intention to hold the caucus before the start of the year. "To go into 2007 makes no sense at all," says Culver. But ultimately he may advocate the move and blame others.

That's the way politics works, isn't it?

THE CHARLES JAY LINE

Will a primary or caucus be held by the end of 2007?

* Yes -130

* No -110

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Charles Jay of TotalAction.com is a freelance writer and oddsmaker who contributes with gusto to the BetUS.com Locker Room