Posted on
3/13/2008 4:51:19 PM
College Hoops Mountain West Quarterfinal - TCU vs. UNLV
By Eric Williams
The Texas Christian Horned Frogs, (14-15 SU, 9-12-1 ATS, 5-15-2 O/U), have been playing miserable basketball lately, winning just three times in their last ten games, while coming into tonight’s Mountain West matchup riding a three-game losing streak that includes a dismal 64-51 loss to BYU at home last Saturday in their regular season finale.
The UNLV Runnin Rebels, (23-7 SU, 15-10-2 ATS, 12-14-1 O/U), have won seven of its last ten games and four of five coming into tonight’s matchup, including a 70-63 win over Utah at home on Saturday.
The Horned Frogs are averaging 66.4 points per game on a pitiful 39.5 percent shooting mark while allowing opponents to routinely outscore them by allowing 67.0 points per game defensively on 45.2 percent shooting.
The Runnin’ Rebels are averaging 68.6 points per game on 41.6 percent shooting while allowing 61.3 points per game and limiting their opponents to a mediocre 40.0 shooting percentage.
Neither team has had much success covering the spread in the BetUS.com Sportsbook, as TCU has gone just 3-6-1 against the spread in its last ten and UNLV, 4-5-1 against the spread over the same span.
UNLV has beaten TCU twice this season, 70-58 on Jan. 30 at TCU and 74-55 at home on March 1.
The Runnin’ Rebels also have a huge advantage in the fact that they have beaten 21 consecutive MWC opponents at the Thomas & Mack Center.
Here is a look at tonight’s Key Trends, followed by my NCAA Basketball Free Picks.
The Horned Frogs are 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight games following a S.U. loss.
The Horned Frogs are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600.
The Runnin' Rebels are 14-4-1 ATS in their last 19 games as a home favorite.
The Runnin' Rebels are 15-5-2 ATS in their last 22 home games.
The Under is 4-0 in Horned Frogs last four games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.
The Under is 5-0 in Runnin' Rebels last five games following a S.U. win.
The Favorite is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings.
The Horned Frogs are 1-4-1 ATS in the last six meetings.
Analysis: UNLV beat the Horned Frogs by 19 at home less than two weeks ago and should be able to pull off the feat once again on an even bigger stage. Take the Runnin’ Rebels to win going away.
NCAAB Free Picks: UNLV –13½ Points/Over 127½ Total Points
09:00 PM EST NCAAB Betting Odds
TCU +13½ -110
UNLV -13½ -110
Over 127½ -110
Under 127½ -110
Mountain West Conference - Quarterfinals @ Thomas & Mack Center, Las Vegas, NV
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