posted September 27, 2007 at 17:44 in NCAA F Articles

I have a friend who used to play for Vanderbilt in the 1990’s. He had to travel all over the SEC, butting heads with Alabama, Florida, Auburn, etc. One of the things he explained to me is that he, and the rest of the Commodores, was never “intimidated going into another team’s stadium”. One of the pleasure of playing college football in the SEC is that, “you were recruited against the same players that you play against” and that you “tend to figure out their tendencies”.

Perhaps, my friend’s insight into SEC football could explain why Florida, who is a BetUS -18.5 against the spread favorite versus Auburn this weekend, is 3–10 against the spread in their last 13 conference games.

The trend includes Florida’s game last week versus Ole Miss. What does this trend tell us? More importantly, does it say anything about this week’s game?

When using trends in your college football handicapping, it’s important to think about which trends matter in the game you are targeting. This is particularly true in SEC play where most of the teams are built around defense.

Here’s an example: Auburn is 3–7 against the spread in their last ten meetings versus Florida. Also, the favorite is 7–3 against the spread in the two teams’ last ten meetings.

The favorite this weekend, of course, is Florida. Does the above trend assume that Florida will cover the -18.5 points versus Auburn?

Not so fast. Another trend concerning Florida is that the under is 9-4 in Florida’s last 13 games in September. Okay, let’s take a look at the BetUS total line for this game. Right now, the over/under is 55 in this weekend’s game between Florida and Auburn. That means that Florida would have to score 34% more than Auburn to beat them by 18.5 points.

That’s an awful lot of points because Auburn, even though they have trouble scoring, rarely gives up scores of their own. Here are the scores in Auburn’s last four games: Auburn - 23 vs. Kansas State – 13, Auburn – 23 vs. South Florida – 26, Auburn – 14 vs. Mississippi State – 19, Auburn – 55 vs. New Mexico State – 20.

The key game in this stretch is Auburn’s game versus Mississippi State. Mississippi State, like Florida, is a fellow SEC team. Auburn played them tough, slowing the game down, and trying to get a win.

There is no reason why they won’t be able to do that against Florida this weekend. Auburn still has a tough defense as evidenced by them only allowing 26 points to a high-scoring and athletic South Florida team.

More importantly, remember that the goal isn’t to follow all trends, but to notice which trend is important to which particular game. The favorite winning 7–3 against the spread in the last ten meetings between Florida and Auburn is deceptive only because in the past ten years Florida has never really been favored by 18.5 point. Recency is dead with this trend. Ten years is too long of a time for a trend in college football to be effective.

However, the trend that says Florida is 3–10 against the spread in their last 13 conference games is much stronger because it only covers one or two years. There is a lot of recency with this trend.

Until next week, good luck!

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