Posted on 1/3/2008 11:17:56 AM

NCAA Football Betting – Rose Bowl Action

By Charles Jay

WHAT: The Rose Bowl

WHO: Illinois Fighting Illini (9-3 SU, 7-4 ATS) vs. USC Trojans (10-2 SU, 7-5 ATS)

WHEN & WHERE: January 1, 4:30 PM ET at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, CA (grass)

BETUS COLLEGE FOOTBALL BETTING LINE: USC -14, Total: 50

LAST POINTSPREAD RESULT: Illinois closed its season on November 17 with a 41-22 win over Northwestern, covering as a 14-point home favorite. The Illini gained 541 yards. Southern Cal last played on December 1, a 24-7 win over UCLA in which they did not cover as a 19.5-point favorite.

LAST MEETING: These teams met in 1996, and USC dusted off Illinois by a 55-3 score. The Illini were only a three-point underdog. Revenge anyone?

ABOUT ILLINOIS:

The Good News -- Rashard Mendenhall is on the short list of the best running backs in the country, having gained 1526 yards on the season. Quarterback Juice Williams chipped in with 774 yards rushing, and Ilinois ranked 5th in the nation in that category (266 yds/game). Ron Zook won some coach of the year awards. His team scored a road win over Ohio State and also beat Wisconsin and Penn State.

The Bad News -- Williams is still not a very accomplished passer. He completed 57% of his throws, which represented an improvement from a year ago, but only for 1498 yards with a 13-10 TD-to-interception ratio. Illinois ranked 105th in the country in kickoff returns.

ABOUT USC:

The Good News -- QB John David Booty had a breakout game in last year's Rose Bowl, passing for 391 yards and four TD's. USC ranked fourth in rushing defense, allowing only 79 yards a game on 2.4 yards a carry. They were third in scoring defense (16 ppg), and are healthier with the rest they've had, especially three-time All-American tackle Sam Baker, who has dealt with injuries for much of the season.

The Bad News -- For all their positives, the Trojans posted a minus-1 turnover margin. Booty was inconsistent at times even when healthy, and broke his right middle finger against Stanford in the embarrassing loss. The defense registered only 10 interceptions.

Here are some NCAA football betting TRENDS relative to this matchup:

* ILL has covered seven of its last 10 games

* ILL is 6-1 ATS in its last seven as a double digit underdog

* ILL is 4-1 ATS in its last five as a dog away from home

* USC has covered five of its last seven games

* USC is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 laying double digits

* USC has played nine of its last ten games UNDER the total

THE BOTTOM LINE: Look, USC has significant edges here. And Illinois, which has been out of action two more weeks than the Trojans, has made a quantum leap from the team that won four games over the previous two years. But it is unlike any Pete Carroll-coached team in recent memory to lose to a program like Stanford, whether or not they had the full complement of players. This is not necessarily a dominant USC edition. And even though they looked awesome down the stretch, holding both UCLA and Oregon State, these were very beatable teams they were playing against. The hype surrounding the Trojans have often outweighed their accomplishments, at least from a pointspread standpoint, as evidenced by Troy's 4-11 ATS run laying ten points or more. Illinois is more potent than most USC foes, and this offense was good enough to hold the ball and run out the clock with a lengthy drive AT COLUMBUS against one of the nation's best defenses. Mendenhall is a force, Williams, with his mobility, can make it difficult for opposing defenses to zero in on him, and Illinois was battle-tested not just by its Big Ten schedule but the non-conference game vs. Missouri (a narrow 40-34 loss). Zook's got enough to keep this game very competitive.

We'll grab considerable points with Illinois, the 14-point underdog in the BetUS college football betting odds.

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(Charles Jay of TotalActionExtra.com loves to help people pick winners. He is a regular contributor to the BetUS.com Locker Room)