Posted on 12/27/2007 4:03:39 PM

NCAA Football Betting – Liberty Bowl

By Charles Jay

LAST POINTSPREAD RESULT: Central Florida ripped Tulsa 44-25 as an eight-point favorite in the Conference USA title game. Mississippi State chalked up a dramatic 17-14 win in the Egg Bowl over Ole Miss, although the Bulldogs did not cover the six-point spread.

LAST MEETING: These teams met in 1997, as MSU beat UCF 35-28.

ABOUT CENTRAL FLORIDA:

The Good News -- There are some superlatives to speak of. UCF sacked opposing quarterbacks 38 times and intercepted 23 passes. And then there is Kevin Smith, one of the best running backs in the country, who rushed for 2448 yards and scored 29 TD's this season.

The Bad News -- UCF had defensive lapses, giving up 28 ppg this year, including back-to-back 52 and 64 points to bowl teams East Carolina and South Florida. In terms of passing yards (mostly generated by Kyle Israel), the Knights ranked 100th nationally.

UCF TRENDS:

* UCF has covered five of its last seven games

* UCF has won its last seven games SU

* UCF has played six UNDERS in its last seven games

* UCF is 1-6 ATS last seven as favorite away from home

ABOUT MISSISSIPPI STATE:

The Good News -- The Bulldogs rose to the occasion at times. They were good enough to beat Auburn, Alabama and Kentucky. Mississippi State is rated 10th in the country in passing yards allowed.

The Bad News -- Mississippi State averaged only 298 yards a game against its Division I-A opponents. They scored just 31 offensive touchdowns, only half that of Central Florida. All told, they are 112th in the country in yards gained.

MISSISSIPPI STATE TRENDS:

* MSU has played four UNDERS in its last five games

* MSU has covered three of its last eight games

* MSU is 7-2-2 ATS in its last 11 games away from home

THE BOTTOM LINE: Central Florida has several important edges going into this bowl game. First, it must be said that George O'Leary has a coaching advantage over MSU's Sylvester Croom. Kyle Israel, though not a dynamic quarterback, still maintains an edge over Wesley Carroll, who was unsteady at times (58% completions). They are more opportunistic and put more pressure on the quarterback, which will rattle Carroll in particular. Most importantly, Kevin Smith (5.9 ypc), who is chasing Barry Sanders' one-season rushing record, is going to have plenty of room against a Bulldog rush defense that was only so-so (4.3 ypc allowed). And this program has been buoyed by his announcement that he is returning for his senior season, presumably to make a run at the Heisman, among other things.

We'll lay the points with the up-and-coming Central Florida team, the 3-point favorite in the BetUS college football betting odds.

WHAT: Liberty Bowl

WHO: Central Florida Knights (10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS) vs.Mississippi State Bulldogs (7-5 SU, 5-6 ATS)

WHEN & WHERE: December 29, 4:30 PM ET at the Liberty Bowl, Stadium in Memphis (artificial turf)

BETUS COLLEGE FOOTBALL BETTING LINE: CENTRAL FLORIDA -3, Total: 56

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(Charles Jay of TotalActionExtra.com loves to help people pick winners. He is a regular contributor to the BetUS.com Locker Room)