Posted on 1/7/2008 6:19:28 PM

NCAA Football Betting – LSU at Ohio State Props

By Charles Jay

Here's an interesting proposition that stuck out at me in the BetUS Sportsbook, as we approach the BCS title game, where LSU is a 3.5-point favorite in the BetUS college football betting odds. It involves Ohio State's star running back, Chris Wells:

Total Rushing Yards

CHRIS WELLS OVER 105.5 -145

CHRIS WELLS UNDER 105.5 +105

This is an interesting prop because I'm conflicted. On the one hand I know what the Ohio State offensive line has in store for it. LSU's star defensive tackle, Glenn Dorsey, is healthy for this game, or at least healthy enough to play effectively. He limped through the latter part of the schedule, nursing knee and back injuries, as well as an assortment of other hurts. But the 36 or so days between games has given him an opportunity to get well.

There is hardly an NFL scout who doesn't consider Dorsey to be one of the top three players that will be available in the upcoming draft. In fact, there are some who have him as the #1 prospect hands down. One scout was quoted in ESPN Magazine as saying, "Dorsey is as disruptive as a small-town divorce." Even of Dorsey is double-teamed, he can dominate the middle of the line completely. That would spell lots of trouble for Ohio State's running game, creating third-and-long situations an forcing QB Todd Boeckman to the air. There is not a big chance, in this humble reporter's opinion, that the Buckeyes can control this game on the ground enough to win.

But they're going to try. Real hard.

And I don't think they have to control the game on the ground for Wells to get over this threshold. He has gained almost four times as many yards as anyone else on the Ohio State roster, so make no mistake about the fact that he is going to get the ball, and get it a lot. And you can't discount the fact that he has done some pretty good things against some pretty good teams. He ran for 221 yards against Michigan State, 133 against Penn State and that outstanding crew of linebackers (led by All-American Dan Connor), 169 against Wisconsin and 222 against Michigan, providing nearly all of his team's offense from scrimmage in the regular season finale.

If we assume Wells is going to get the ball close to the 23 carries that supplies an over/under already in another BetUS proposition, he can be held well more than a yard below his season average (which is 5.8 ypc) and still get to 106 yards. On balance, unless these guys have to throw it very early and very often, I think he's a percentage play.

JAY'S PLAY: WELLS OVER 105.5 -145

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(Charles Jay of TotalActionExtra.com loves to help people pick winners. He is a regular contributor to the BetUS.com Locker Room)