Posted on 1/8/2008 11:26:17 AM

NCAA Football Betting – GMAC Bowl Bowling Green at Tulsa

By Charles Jay

LAST POINTSPREAD RESULT: Bowling Green beat Toledo 37-10 on November 23, covering as a seven-point favorite. On December 1, Tulsa lost the Conference USA title game to Central Florida, 44-25, failing to cover as an eight-point underdog.

ABOUT BOWLING GREEN:

The Good News -- Bowling Green came on strong down the stretch, winning and covering its last four games. The Falcons ranked 19th in the country in passing offense, averaging 287 yards a game. Quarterback Tyler Sheehan completed 63% of his passes with 23 TD's. BG's pass defense rated 30th in the country (208 ypg allowed). Safety P.J. Mahone picked off ten passes, tied for second in the nation.

The Bad News -- Bowling Green ranked 107th in the country against the run, giving up 205 yards a game on 4.6 yards per carry. They were 78th in total defense. The Falcons played just two teams this season who went to bowl games, and lost to both by double digit margins.

ABOUT TULSA:

The Good News -- The Golden Hurricane led the nation in total offense, gaining an average of 543 yards per game. Paul Smith, a future pro, ranked sixth nationally in passing efficiency, throwing for 4753 yards and 42 TD passes. His most explosive receiver, freshman Brennan Marion, gained an insane 31.9 yards per catch.

The Bad News -- Smith threw 19 interceptions. Among Division I-A starting quarterbacks, only North Texas' Giovanni Vizza threw more. That was one of the factors that led to Tulsa's minus-10 turnover margin. Tulsa defense was rated 111th overall, giving up 40 points or more on six different occasions. Tulsa was 97th in rushing defense and 108th in passing defense.

Here are some of the NCAA college football betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

* BG has won and covered its last four games and five of its last six

* TULSA has covered two of its last 11 games

* TULSA has won five of its last six games SU

* TULSA has covered one of its last seven games as a favorite

* TULSA has played 16 of its last 24 games UNDER the total

* BG is 0-6 ATS in its last six games playing with rest

THE BOTTOM LINE: MAC contender Bowling Green's schedule has to be looked upon as suspect. The Falcons not only lost to the only bowl-level teams they played - 28-17 to Michigan State and 55-24 to Boston College - they managed to avoid Central Michigan, their own conference champion. Tyler Sheehan and his four-WR sets will get their yards, to be sure, because Tulsa can't help but be permissive. But fundamentals don't exactly favor their stop unit. Bowling Green's defensive line has had a problem controlling the opponent, so expect Tulsa to make use of running back Tarrion Adams, who rushed for 1113 yards. Paul Smith is one of the nation's most productive quarterbacks, who will be playing in the NFL. Yes, he makes mistakes, but he will make more big plays than Sheehan. Coach Todd Graham is itching to make up for his first bowl appearance, in which his Rice team was blown out 41-17 to Troy in last season's New Orleans Bowl. Tulsa won its last five regular season games to reach the C-USA title game, and scored a combined 111 points in wins over bowl-bound BYU and Houston. They've got too much firepower for Bowling Green to contend with.

We'll lay the points with Tulsa, the 4.5-point favorite in the BetUS NCAA football betting odds.

WHAT: GMAC Bowl

WHO: Bowling Green Falcons (8-4 SU, 7-4 ATS) vs. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (9-4 SU, 4-9 ATS)

WHEN & WHERE: January 6, 8 PM ET at Ladd Peebles Stadium in Mobile, AL (artificial turf). Televised by ESPN.

BETUS NCAA FOOTBALL BETTING LINE: TULSA -4.5, Total: 76.5

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(Charles Jay of TotalActionExtra.com loves to help people pick winners. He is a regular contributor to the BetUS.com Locker Room)