Posted on 1/7/2008 4:46:38 PM

NCAA Football Betting – BCS Championship Ohio State at LSU

By Charles Jay

LAST POINTSPREAD RESULT: Ohio State beat Michigan 14-3 at Ann Arbor, covering as a four-point road favorite and limiting the Wolverines to 91 net yards. LSU beat Tennessee 21-14 in the SEC title game, getting a push as the seven-point favorite.

ABOUT OHIO STATE:

The Good News -- Ohio State led the nation in total defense, scoring defense and passing efficiency defense. The Buckeyes surrendered 10.7 points per game and 148 passing yards per contest. James Laurinaitis won the Butkus Award as the nation's best linebacker. Todd Boeckman, who took over the QB spot after Heisman trophy winner Troy Smith graduated, led the Big Ten in passing efficiency.

The Bad News -- Ohio State averaged less than 18 yards per kickoff return and nine yards per punt return. The team had a minus-1 turnover margin and intercepted only ten passes on the season. The Buckeyes also played an extremely weak non-conference schedule which included Youngstown State, Akron, Washington and Kent State.

OHIO STATE TRENDS:

* OSU has covered five of its last seven games

* OSU has won 23 of its last 25 games SU

* OSU has played four of its last six games OVER the total

* OSU is 4-2 ATS in bowl games under Jim Tressel

* OSU is 3-0 ATS as an underdog in bowl games under Jim Tressel

ABOUT LSU:

The Good News -- LSU sported the third best turnover margin in the country at +18. The Tigers ranked second in pass efficiency defense, third in total defense, eleventh in rushing offense, 12th in scoring offense and 13th in rushing defense. Of course, the REALLY good news is that star players like WR Early Doucet and DT Glenn Dorsey, both of whom will be in the first round of the NFL draft but were bothered by injuries for much of the season, will be healthier than they have been for a while.

The Bad News -- LSU gave up 29 quarterback sacks, and surrendered 19.6 points per game. The defense yielded 30 touchdowns - almost three times as many as the Ohio State defense. The air attack was ranked only 54th nationally.

LSU TRENDS:

* LSU was 1-7-2 ATS in its last 10 games

* LSU has won 18 of its last 20 games SU

* LSU has played seven of its last eight games OVER the total

* LSU is 6-11-1 ATS in its last 18 games laying points

* LSU is 9-1-1 ATS in its last 11 non-conference games

THE BOTTOM LINE: Well, Les Miles didn't take the Michigan job, but he gets to play the Buckeyes anyway, in a game that means much more (at least for everyone outside of Columbus or Ann Arbor). Did he make the right choice?

Both of these teams are pretty balanced, although there are some disparate statistics when looking at the units on paper. Ohio State gave up less than 11 points a game and just eleven TD's from scrimmage all year, while LSU surrendered almost 20 ppg and 30 TD's. Meanwhile, LSU scored 59 touchdowns on offense, compared to 39 for the Buckeyes. There is quite a difference in the turnover margins, indicating that LSU, with 21 interceptions, is a lot more opportunistic. But Ohio State stopped Michigan cold in the season finale, holding the Wolverines to 91 total yards, which sound scary when you saw what Michigan did with Florida in the Capital One Bowl.

On the other hand, Ohio State took a home loss against Illinois, which was virtually run over by USC in the Rose Bowl, reviving talk about what speed-oriented teams can do to the best of the Big Ten. It's a foregone conclusion that the SEC is a better conference than the Big Ten, and LSU almost went through it undefeated, beaten only twice in triple overtime.

You have to hand it to Ohio State coach Jim Tressel. One year he has to replace nine players from his defense and winds up in the national championship game. This season he had to replace the Heisman winner (Smith), a running back who wound up in the NFL (Antonio Pittman) and two wide receivers who were drafted in the first round (Ted Ginn and Anthony Gonzalez) and here he is in the title game again. Of course, the result of this year's attrition is an offense that is efficient, but somewhat predictable. Todd Boeckman was serviceable, hitting 64% of his passes for 23 TD's and 12 INT's, but he was not explosive by any means. The offense has less firepower and is more basic, depending upon Chris Wells (1463 yards). This will play into the hands of LSU's quick defense, which has three All-Americans on it.

The key to this game may be that the long respite recharges LSU's batteries. If Early Doucet is close to full strength, that will stretch the Ohio State defense, because he is one of the more dynamic receivers in the country. And Glenn Dorsey's full presence makes this a completely different defense, because he will control the middle of the line. The ultimate run-stuffer, one scout called him "as disruptive as a small-town divorce."

LSU's Matt Flynn (55%) is not a dynamic passer, but the Tigers can throw a curveball at this opponent in the person of more athletic Ryan Perilloux, who was the MVP of the SEC title game. Look for Perilloux to have a package all his own.

Yes, Ohio State is a big-time program; it wouldn't be playing its third title game in six years of it wasn't. But we believe in subscribing to certain factors, namely the relative strength of conferences and the relative strength of schedules. The Buckeyes played some fringe bowl squads, but did not subject itself to the kind of tests, week in and week out, that LSU submitted to. That, along with the expanded presence of major impact players (Doucet and Dorsey) lean us toward LSU, the 4.5-point favorite in the BetUS NCAA football betting odds.

WHAT: The BCS National Championship Game

WHO: Ohio State Buckeyes (11-1 SU, 7-4 ATS) vs. LSU Tigers (11-2 SU, 4-7-2 ATS)

WHEN & WHERE: January 7, 8 PM ET at the Louisiana Superdome in New Orleans (artificial turf)

BETUS COLLEGE FOOTBALL BETTING LINE: LSU -4.5, Total 48.5

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(Charles Jay of TotalActionExtra.com loves to help people pick winners. He is a regular contributor to the BetUS.com Locker Room)