Posted on 1/2/2008 2:44:46 PM

NCAA Football Betting – Fiesta Bowl West Virginia at Oklahoma

By Charles Jay

LAST POINTSPREAD RESULT: West Virginia threw away a chance to play in the national title game by losing 13-9 to Pittsburgh as a 28.5-point home favorite. They gained 183 yards in the contest. Oklahoma won the Big 12 title game with a 38-17 win over Missouri as a three-point favorite.

ABOUT WEST VIRGINIA :

The Good News -- Obviously West Virginia possesses the big-time rushing attack, ranked #4 in the country with 293 yards a game. QB Patrick White 1273 yards and 7.2 yards a carry. Steve Slaton expected more but wound up with 1104 yards. Freshman speedster Noel Devine averaged 9.2 yards an attempt. West Virginia's fourth-ranked defense also limited opposing runners to three yards a carry, and the team posted a +12 turnover margin.

The Bad News -- Like many bowl teams enabled by this NCAA system that seems to have contempt for the athlete, there is coaching confusion. Rich Rodriguez, so closely identified with West Virginia's spread offense, has left to take the job at Michigan and the state is suing him for his contract buyout. Bill Stewart in the interim coach for the bowl game. Calvin Magee remains the offensive coordinator - for now.

ABOUT OKLAHOMA:

The Good News -- Oklahoma ranked seventh in rushing defense, giving up 2.8 yards a carry and 91 yards a game. The Sooners were third in the country in scoring (43.4 ppg). And they had a point differential of over 25 ppg. Oklahoma was first in kickoff returns, second in passing efficiency defense and fourth best at protecting the passer, surrendering just 11 sacks. Freshman QB Sam Bradford was rated first in passing efficiency, with 70% completions, 34 TD's and just 7 INT's.

The Bad News -- Oklahoma gave up 233 passing yards a game, only 67th best in the nation. This team had lapses against Texas Tech and Colorado; a win against either and they might be playing for the national title.

Here are some college football betting TRENDS relative to this matchup:

* WV is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 games away from home

* WV is 1-4 ATS in its last five bowls

* WV has covered four of its last six as a dog

* OKLA has covered three of its last nine games

* OKLA has covered one of its last four bowl games

* WV has played seven of its last 10 games UNDER the total

* OKLA has played four of its last six games UNDER the total

THE BOTTOM LINE: The tendency may be to disparage Patrick White's passing ability. But White was 68% accurate with just four INT's in 197 attempts. Still, he's not the type to beat you end-to-end with his arm, so Oklahoma will overplay on defense and let its quickness challenge the West Virginia running game. As evidenced by their two wins over an extremely capable Missouri team, Oklahoma, when it is focused, is much the better team. Will they be focused here? Likely a bit more than West Virginia, whose players have to be affected by a Rodriguez situation that has turned ugly. In terms of coaching and preparation, Bob Stoops has been involved in a few national title games, while WVU's staff doesn't know where its next paycheck is coming from. Well, actually that's not accurate; offensive coordinator Magee and defensive coordinator Jeff Casteel have already joined Rodriguez's Michigan staff, effective after this game, which is a problem in and off itself.

Does anybody think Oklahoma will get caught with its pants down, as it did in the crushing loss to Boise State in last year's Fiesta? Don't count on it. This has the potential to enter blowout territory, as Bradford, who is for real, provides the Sooners with sufficient firepower. We'll lay it with Oklahoma, the 8.5-point favorite in the BetUS college football betting odds.

WHAT: Fiesta Bowl

WHO: West Virginia Mountaineers (10-2 SU, 7-5 ATS) vs. Oklahoma Sooners (11-2 SU, 7-6 ATS)

WHEN & WHERE: January 2, 8 PM ET at University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, AZ (grass)

BETUS COLLEGE FOOTBALL BETTING LINE: OKLAHOMA -8.5, Total: 63.5

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(Charles Jay of TotalActionExtra.com loves to help people pick winners. He is a regular contributor to the BetUS.com Locker Room)