Posted on
10/24/2007 5:21:48 PM
NCAA Football Predictions: Boston College at Virginia Tech
By Charles Jay
BetUS college football betting line: Virginia Tech -3.5, Total: 43½
Once again, it is an ESPN Thursday night game with national championship implications, as Boston College (7-0 SU, 4-2 ATS), rated #2 in the latest BCS standings, takes on Virginia Tech (6-1 SU, 2-4 ATS), which occupies the #8 spot in the BCS, in an Atlantic Coast Conference showdown at Lane Stadium in Blacksburg, Va. (natural grass). Game time is 7:45 PM ET, and Virginia Tech is listed at -3.5 in the BetUS NCAA football betting odds, with the over/under posted at 43½ points.
Both teams are rested, having had the preceding week off. Boston College's last game was a 27-14 win over Notre Dame on October 13, where the Eagles failed to cover the 14-point spread and the total went under the 48-point over/under posted. Boston College had a big edge in yards over the Irish (459-222). Virginia Tech beat Duke 43-14 on Oct. 13, easily covering the 14.5-point line as a favorite. The Hokies outgained Duke by a 445-194 count.
In the HEAD-TO-HEAD college football betting trends:
* BC has covered six of the last seven meetings
* VT has won eight of the last ten meetings SU
* VT has won four of the last five meetings at home SU
* BC has covered four of the last five times it has visited VT
* The home team has covered three of the last four meetings
* The underdog has covered six of the last seven meetings
Last year Boston College, a two-point home underdog, beat Virginia Tech 22-3, outgaining the Hokies by a 264-181 margin. Virginia Tech committed four turnovers in the game.
Boston College is rated #2 in both the USA Today and Associated Press polls in addition to its #2 BCS slot. Eagles coach Jeff Jagodzinski, who was one of Brett Favre's offensive coordinators with the Green Bay Packers, is having success with his QB of the moment, Matt Ryan, who is now smack dab in the middle of the Heisman race. Ryan has completed 63% of his passes for 17 TD's and just six INT's. The Eagles have some balance, averaging 145 rushing yards, and are the nation's #1 defense against the run, allowing just 46 yards a game on 1.8 yards a carry. BC has racked up 18 interceptions, which is tops in the country as well. Also:
* BC has won 12 of its last 17 road games SU
* BC has played five of its last six road games under the total
* BC has covered just two of its last seven road games
* BC has covered its last four games as an underdog
Virginia Tech has had a trying season, as the campus deals with the shooting tragedy that happened earlier this year. The Hokies were unimpressive in beating East Carolina in the season opener, then were blown out 48-7 against LSU at Baton Rouge. Since then they have bounced back with five straight wins, including an 18-point shellacking of Clemson on October 6. V-Tech has gained just 10.6 yards per point, which indicates offensive efficiency. But even though they have held opponents to just 2.8 yards a carry, they haven't moved it well on the ground, averaging only 3.3 yards an attempt and ranking 112th overall in total offense. QB Tyrod Taylor has not been overly productive (just 3 TD's) but he has thrown just one interception in 102 passes. And he has 248 net yards rushing. But he is nursing an ankle sprain, and may be replaced by Sean Glennon, last year's starter who was 16 for 21 against Duke. Also:
* VT has won its last five home games SU
* VT is 0-3 ATS as home favorite this year, 15-8 ATS in previous four years
* VT is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 ACC games
Whichever quarterback gets the call for Virginia Tech, that guy is going to have a lot of pressure on him, because Boston College has the ability to stop a weak Hokie rushing game cold. Ryan is a genuine pro prospect and will be keyed up for this game, which is the one everyone is watching. He'll make his Heisman and national title case here. I would give a solid edge to BC, the 3.5-point underdog in the BetUS college football betting odds and look for them to capture their fifth straight cover in the underdog role.
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(Charles Jay of TotalActionExtra.com loves to help people pick winners. He is a regular contributor to the BetUS.com Locker Room)