Posted on
12/27/2007 5:55:57 PM
NCAA Football Bowl Betting – Sun Devils vs. Longhorns
By Tim Furious
Amidst the hazardously unpredictable 2007 NCAA Football season were the surprising Sun Devils who posted a 10-2 SU and were snubbed when the BCS polls made their final tally. Arizona State has long been overshadowed by their better known, and superior, rivals in the Pac-10. But a decisive victory over the Longhorns will solidify their unexpectedly high ranking going in to next year. Are they up to the challenge?
Arizona State Offense vs. Texas Defense
Quarterback Rudy Carpenter hammered the Sun Devils to ten victories by throwing for a 63.0 completion percentage, 3,015 yards, 23 touchdowns and only 8 interceptions. Arizona State averages a startling 287.5 passing yards per game, and the unheralded Carpenter has to be licking his lips at a secondary that gives up a whopping 275.5 passing yards per game.
However, that will be null and void if the Sun Devils can not establish the run. Texas is ranked 10th in the nation in rush defense, allowing only 150.9 yards per game against on the ground. That, however, is offset by the fact that most teams throw on this defense. Either way, bet on a heavy work load for Keegan Herring, who averaged 5.4 yards per carry this season and rushed for 816 yards on 152 carries.
The Sun Devils have a blistering advantage over the secondary with Chris McGaha and Michael Jones catching passes from Carpenter. While the Arizona State offensive line allowed 51 sacks this season, which is the third highest, the Texas pass rush is not much for Carpenter or the Sun Devils betting investors to fret too much about.
Texas Offense vs. Arizona State Defense
For all the hullabaloo surrounding Colt McCoy heading in to this season, he has done nothing shy of disappoint the high expectations the media and the Longhorns betting faithful invested in him. The sophomore gun slinger had 18 interceptions this season, which was bad enough for worst in the country. Arizona State averages 231.8 pass yards against, but McCoy is walking in to this bowl game haunted by a tumultuous season.
The Arizona State defense is a lot like the Buffalo Bills of the NFL – they operate out of the basic 4-3 and are predicated on speed, athleticism and aggression, while sacrificing size. Running-back Jamaal Charles will be the focal point of the Texas offense, and has been dominant through the season. He averaged 6.3 yards per carry, and will be able to wear down this defense. The problem is that the line-backer corps is as durable as they are agile. It will be a war of attrition in the pits for Charles who will face eight-man fronts more often than he would like. The Sun Devils rank 13th against the run.
NCAA Football Betting Trends
-Texas is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
-Total has gone OVER In 8 of Texas last 11 games
-Arizona State is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
-Total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona State’s last 5 games
Final Verdict
Arizona State’s success this year has epitomized the unpredictable nature of this year’s NCAA Football season. The Longhorns edge the Sun Devils in points per game, averaging 36.0 per game, but their defense is marginally worse, allowing 24.6 points. Rudy Carpenter has enjoyed flying under the radar of low expectations and should flourish against a defense that has been nothing short of abysmal this year in the Big-12. It is not secret that I have had a mad hate on for the Sun Devils, but in the Pacific Life Holiday Bowl, Erickson’s devils will have their day in the sun.
#11 Arizona State Sun Devils (10-2) vs. #19 Texas Longhorns (9-3)
Thursday, December 27th --- Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego --- 8:00pm EST
Opening NCAA Football Line: Texas -1.5 (620
NCAA Football Free Pick: Arizona State 40 Texas 34
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