Posted on
12/28/2007 4:17:36 PM
NCAA College Basketball Betting – Wisconsin at Texas
By Charles Jay
The Big Ten's Wisconsin Badgers (9-2 SU, 4-4 ATS) will visit the Frank Erwin Center in Austin on Saturday (Noon ET tipoff) to take on the Texas Longhorns (11-1 SU, 5-2 ATS), a Big 12 power, in NCAA basketball betting action.
This is a great matchup of styles, as Bo Ryan's Badgers like to keep a slow pace, while Rick Barnes' 'Longhorns want to run up and down the floor like racehorses if possible.
Here are some of the NCAAB betting trends and stats relative to this matchup:
* WISC has covered two of its last six games
* WISC has played four UNDERS in its last five games
* WISC has lost four of its last five road games
* WISC has played four UNDERS in its last five road games
* TEX has played four of its last six games OVER the total
* WISC has allowed 53 ppg (2nd nationally)
* WISC has allowed 36.6% FG shooting
* TEX is shooting 49.7% FG's
* TEX has committed just 9.9 turnovers a game
* WISC averages 13.3 offensive rebounds per game
* WISC shoots 66.4% from the free throw line
In what will be a battle of wills, the question, of course, is whether Wisconsin can impose its preferred slowdown game on Texas. The answer, from this corner, is "no." Texas has perhaps the best point guard in the country in D.J. Augustin, who stayed behind after fellow freshman Kevin Durant bolted for the NBA following the 2007 NCAAB betting odds tournament. Augustin leads a Longhorn offense that turns the ball over less than 10 times a game (best in the country in that category), and he'll force things be much more up-tempo.
Wisconsin was #5 in the country at the close of the regular season last year, but with Alando Tucker and his scoring (19.9 ppg) gone, Wisconsin has had to make up for it. Trevon Hughes and Michael Flowers have done a good job in the backcourt, but they're going to have a hard time matching up with the quickness of Augustin and his Texas backcourt mate, A.J. Abrams, who combine for 39 points a contest.
True, with Brian Butch in the middle, there can indeed be a Badger edge in the paint. But Texas' three-guard offense will often beat him down the court. And Damion James, part of the great freshman infusion last season who has averaged ten rebounds a game in his second season, is not as bulky as Butch but is tenacious, and a defender. If Texas is permitted to get off to a fast start, Wisconsin (5.2 threes per game) does not generally possess the long-range shooting needed to make up big margins, either.
Texas is battle-hardened already, climbing to the #9 ranking in the AP poll on the strength of wins over New Mexico State, Tennessee and UCLA, which came before the lone defeat, last Saturday against 7th-ranked Michigan State. Their style prevails in this one.
JAY'S PREDICTION: TEXAS BY 16
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(Charles Jay of TotalActionExtra.com lives within a stone's throw of the Notre Dame campus. And believe us, he's thrown some stones at it. He currently is a regular contributor to the BetUS Locker Room)