Posted on
1/4/2008 9:12:28 PM
NCAA Basketball Betting – USC at Stanford
By Charles Jay
Two teams will be looking for their first Pac-10 win of the season on Saturday as the USC Trojans (9-4 SU, 6-4-1 ATS), led to freshman sensation O.J. Mayo, visit the Maples Center in Palo Alto, CA to take on Brook Lopez and the Stanford Cardinal (11-2 SU, 6-7 ATS) in a Saturday night game beginning at 8 PM ET.
Both teams fell in their respective conference openers - Stanford to UCLA and USC to California.
Here are some of the NCAA basketball betting trends and stats relative to this matchup:
* STAN has covered three of the last four meetings
* STAN is 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight meetings
* STAN has played eight of its last nine games UNDER the total
* STAN is 4-5 ATS at home this season
* USC has covered three of four road games
* USC has played eight of its 11 games UNDER the total
* STAN has had the rebounding edge in the last three meetings
* STAN averages 11.3 offensive rebounds per game
* STAN shoots 48.3 % FG's
* STAN allows 57.6 points per game (15th nationally)
* STAN allows 39.7% shooting by opponents
* USC averages 6.4 steals per game
* USC is allowing 61.5 points per game
O.J. Mayo, the prize freshman for USC, had his career high with 34 points in Thursday night's game with Cal, but there was very little distribution of scoring. If he is the offense's only viable option, it could be especially dangerous against a team like Stanford, which can collapse with its twin seven-footers and make you beat them with consistent shooting from the outside. In last season's first meetup, Brook Lopez completely controlled the game in the paint, blocking 12 shots in a 15-point win for the Tree at the Maples Pavilion. The other side of the coin is that USC later beat the Cardinal twice, including a win in the Pac 10's conference tournament. California had an offensive explosion, sinking eleven three-point shots. But the 92 points registered by the Bears was an aberration; USC has held everyone else to 62 points or less, including Memphis and Kansas, arguably two of the best teams in the country.
Stanford has played eight of nine under the total. So they obviously like to slow the pace down. USC is the team that may benefit by pumping up the volume a notch and running, so as to beat the Lopez brothers down the court. That's the best hope for easy baskets on the part of the Trojans. With Mayo, they may be able to affect that tempo. We feel comfortable grabbing available points with the more battle-tested men of Troy over a Stanford team that has experienced few road bumps, and didn't make it over one of them on Thursday.
JAY'S PREDICTION: USC BY 2
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(Charles Jay of TotalActionExtra.com lives within a stone's throw of the Notre Dame campus. And believe us, he's thrown some stones at it. He currently is a regular contributor to the BetUS Locker Room)