Posted on
12/27/2007 6:01:49 PM
NCAA Basketball Wagering – Nevada at North Carolina
By Eric Williams
The North Carolina Tar Heels, (11-0 SU, 8-1 ATS, 6-3 O/U) are 11-0 for the first time since 1997-98 and certainly have the look of a legitimate national champion contender.
The Nevada Wolfpack, (7-4 SU, 5-6 ATS, 6-5 O/U) may not be in the same class as the Tar Heels, but they have built the basketball program into one that is now highly regarded – and very competitive – after winning four consecutive Western Athletic Conference titles and going 29-5 last season.
North Carolina enters this contest coming off a thorough 105-70 spanking of UC Santa Barbara on Saturday, in which All-American forward Tyler Hansbrough scored at least 20 points for the fourth consecutive game.
After getting off to a 2-4 start this season, the Wolfpack have won five straight, including a 55-52 victory over Northern Iowa on Saturday. Forward JaVale McGee is among the top 10 in the nation with 3.5 blocked shots per game, but senior guard Marcelus Kemp leads the Wolf Pack in scoring, averaging 19.1 points per game.
The Tar Heels are averaging 102.5 points per game on 52.8 percent shooting, compared to Nevada’s 65.0 points per game on 44.9 percent shooting. Defensively, North Carolina allows just 71.0 points per game while holding their opponents to 41.8 percent shooting. The Wolfpack allows 66.4 points per game to their opponents on a dismal 39.9 percent shooting.
Here is a look at tonight’s key trends, followed by my NCAAB betting Free pick.
Key Wolf Pack Trends
The Wolf Pack are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
The Wolf Pack are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600.
The Wolf Pack are 30-12-5 ATS in their last 47 Thursday games.
Key Tar Heels Trends
The Tar Heels are 9-2 ATS in their last eleven games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game.
The Tar Heels are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
The Tar Heels are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 home games.
Key Totals Trends
The Over is 6-0 in Wolf Pack last six Thursday games.
The Over is 11-4 in Wolf Pack last 15 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
The Over is 4-0 in Tar Heels last four games following a S.U. win.
The Over is 6-0 in Tar Heels last six games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
Key Head-to-Head Trends
There are no trends available.
Analysis: While North Carolina is clearly the better team in this matchup. Something tells me the Nevada Wolfpack are going to make this game much closer than the 21.5-point spread. Take Nevada with its terrific defense, to cover the spread against the Tar Heels in a losing effort.
NCAAB Free Pick: Nevada +21.5 Points/Under 160 Total Points
07:00 PM EST NCAAB Betting Odds
Nevada +21½ -110
North Carolina -21½ -110
Over 160 -110
Under 160 -110
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