Posted on 3/13/2008 3:18:13 PM

College Basketball Predictions - NORTHWESTERN vs. MINNESOTA

By Charles jay

BetUS NCAA basketball betting odds: MINNESOTA -9.5, Total 128.5

The Minnesota Golden Gophers (18-12 SU, 13-12 ATS) have a lot to gain in this Big Ten tournament, and they can not afford a slip-up as they tangle with the Wildcats of Northwestern (8-21 SU, 10-14 ATS) in the first round of the conference tournament, tipping off at 5 PM ET Thursday at the Conseco Fieldhouse in Indianapolis.

In the BetUS NCAA basketball betting odds, Minnesota is listed as a 9.5-point favorite, with a total of 128.5 points.

Here are some of the NCAAB betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

* NW has lost 10 of its last 11 games SU

* NW has covered three of its last eight games

* NW has played seven of its last nine games UNDER the total

* NW is 1-17 SU in conference games

* MINN has lost three of its last four games SU

* MINN has covered one of its last five games

* MINN has played six of its last seven games UNDER the total

* MINN has covered the last three meetings

* NW has won and covered six of the last nine meetings

* NW has had the shooting edge in six of the last nine meetings

* MINN has had the rebounding edge in nine of the last ten meetings

* MINN has made more three-pointers in four of the last five meetings

Kudos to Minnesota for turning around series fortunes this year against Northwestern, sweeping the two meetings by margins of 20 and 19 points. Clearly this Wildcat team is down from recent editions, but Minnesota, which finished 9-22 last season, improved to 18-12 (as of today) under first-year coach Tubby Smith, who has managed to integrate energetic freshmen like Blake Hoffarber and Al Nolen into the starting lineup.

While it is true that the relative inexperience of the guard tandem will hurt the Gophers as they advance against better teams in this tourney, and in the NIT, where they are likely headed after this, it won't hurt them here, against a Northwestern team that often leaves gaping holes on the defensive end (allowing 48.6% FG's) as it is trying to slow things down in its own half-court offense. We respect that Northwestern can take care of the ball (only 10.9 turnovers per contest, 7th best in Division I), but that hasn't resulted in many victories. And there is absolutely no efficient board work being done by Bill Carmody's team, which averages just 21 rebounds a game (and only FIVE on the offensive end!).

The two encounters this season were instructive, as we'll lay the points with Minnesota, the 9.5-point favorite in the BetUS NCAAB betting odds.

JAY'S PLAY: MINNESOTA

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(Charles Jay of http://www.eBookies.com gives it the old college try as a regular contributor to the BetUS Locker Room)