Posted on
12/3/2007 3:06:29 PM
NCAAB Wagering - Pac-10 Flexes Its Muscles
By D.S. Williamson
If there is one lesson that we have learned from watching college basketball so far this season, it is that college basketball hasn’t changed at all. The “haves” still have it and the “have-nots” still don’t have it.
What I mean is that the college basketball season still depends on how the teams in the ACC and Pac-10 Conferences do and that every team, win or lose, outside of one of those conferences still has a long way to go before convincing NCAAB bettors that they deserve a few bucks on them to win.
Arizona, an unranked team as of this writing, almost upset the number four Kansas Jayhawks in Kansas’s own backyard. Then, the Wildcats, obviously upset at being one of the few good Pac-10 teams not ranked in the Top 25, took it to Texas A & M. The Aggies built a 20 point lead in that game and still managed to lose to a Wildcat’s team led by a freshman point-guard, Jeryd Bayless, and a dude who looks like Kelly Slater’s (the great surf champion) kick around “take the waves” buddy, Chase Budinger. Budinger, who might be one of the smoothest small forwards in the nation - - even with the “Greatest American Hero” hairdo, was absolutely brilliant versus the Aggies. He racked up 19 points and 4 rebounds, but it was the freshman guard, Jeryd Bayless, who made his mark in this game. He ran up 26 versus the Aggies, a top-ten ranked team, and showed the rest of the nation that even without Lute Olsen behind the wheel the Arizona Wildcats will be a force to reckon with.
For the rest of the college basketball world, that is not a good sign. Arizona is considered one of the lower-tier teams in the powerful Pac-10 but the fact that they have played well against top tier opponents shows that they are indeed as good as probably any team in the Pac-10. Sure, UCLA and USC both lost tough games this past weekend to Texas and Kansas respectively, but don’t be fooled by those games. The Pac-10 season really starts when all of those teams play each other and this year - - well, this year the Pac-10 is going to be absolutely awesome. If everything shakes out the way it should, we might see at least two Pac-10 teams in the Final Four, maybe three, harking back to the Big-East days of Georgetown, St. John’s, and Villanova.
That was the 1985-86 season and, yes, the Pac-10 is that good. Right now, the Pac-10 has UCLA, USC, Washington State, and Oregon ranked in the top 25. After the Arizona Wildcats make their debut, the Pac-10 will have 5 out of their 10 teams ranked in the Top 25. Five is good, but six would be better. Stanford, who traditionally has very good teams, has been making some waves in these early weeks. Should they make their way into the Top 25, the Pac-10 might end up with 6 teams in the AP Top 25. That’s what you call conference strength.
Of course, the rest of the nation hasn’t just sat on their laurels. The Duke Blue Devils were supposed to have a down year in the ACC, but somebody forgot to tell them. They are undefeated this year, and have squashed both #20 Wisconsin and #13 Marquette in two of their last four games. That makes the Blue Devils a serious contender in the ACC where North Carolina, the top-ranked team in the nation, and Clemson, ranked # 18, look to make it difficult for the Blue Devils.
So, right now it’s all about the ACC and the Pac-10, but that’s not all there is. Looking at college basketball from a wagering point-of-view, there are a few things that make sense. Here’s my Super Seven Observations of the NCAA Basketball Season so far:
1. North Carolina is For Real = The Tar Heels are awesome. The reason being is that they beat Ohio State by 11 points, on the road, without Ty Lawson. Lawson happens to be not only the best player on North Carolina’s team but maybe the best player in the nation. He is an obvious NBA Lottery pick. Going into a tough environment like Ohio State, and beating the Buckeyes into the ground without your best player, speaks volumes about this team. Don’t even think about wagering on the Heels NOT to cover until they get into hard-core ACC play.
2. Coach Billy Gillispie is having a hard time adjusting to the SEC = Coach Gillispie built a pretty good program at Texas A&M, but what he failed to realize is that going from the Big-12, unless your Kansas, into the SEC is a different ball-game than just deciding to coach some kids into the Big Dance. As good as Texas A&M have been the past few years, the pressure at Kentucky is about ten times that of what Gillispie felt at A&M and it’s showing on the court. Losing by 9 to the North Carolina Tar Heels at home is no disgrace unless, of course, you are the Kentucky Wildcats. Lexington cares about two things: horses and the Kentucky Wildcats basketball team. All ready Gillispie is starting resemble the coach that Eric Taylor replaced this season on Friday Night Lights. If Gillispie can’t right this ship, then Kentucky keeps going down, down, down…
3. The Pac-10 will get five teams, 50% of the conference, into the Big Dance = I alluded to this earlier. The Pac-10 is loaded with good teams. They will get five teams into the NCAAB Tournament: Arizona, USC, Oregon, Stanford, and Washington State. Out of those five, every single one of them has a chance to go deep into the tournament. That makes the Pac-10 the conference to watch this year. Not just from a fan’s perspective, but also from a college basketball bettor’s perspective as well. USC, Washington State, Oregon, and UCLA, get most of the press, but Arizona might be the key team, in the Pac-10, from a wagering stand-point. They should receive way more points against the spread when facing UCLA, Washington State, and Oregon then when UCLA faces Washington State or Oregon faces UCLA. In other words, because the rest of the conference is so good, many college basketball bettors odds may forget all about the Wildcats. As John Lee Hooker would say, betting on the Wildcats might be, “A boom, boom, boom!”
4. Nevada WIL NOT Turn it Around= From a bettor’s point-of-view, Nevada has been one of the best teams to wager on in both the NCAAB Tournament and regular NCAAB games. The Wolfpack, the past four years, have been money against tougher opponents. Not so this year. They’ve lost three in a row and turnaround looks unlikely as the rest of their teams in the WAC Conference sort of have their number. In their 6 games this year, Nevada has lost to UCF, Pacific, and UNLV. Ugh…
5. Tennessee WILL Turn it Around = The Volunteers lost by 19 points to the Texas Longhorns about a week ago or so. No worries. This team is still loaded. Out of their 8 games so far this year, they’ve scored between 80 to 110 points. All coach Bruce Pearl needs to do is get his fellas to play tighter defense and this team starts blowing opposing teams out of arenas. Expect that to happen when Tennessee starts SEC play. They’re too good to get beat by LSU, Arkansas, or Kentucky.
6. Both Michigan State and Indiana will get a Top 4 or Higher Seed in the Tournament = Michigan State and Indiana are so much better than the rest of the Big 10 that it’s a slam dunk that both teams will get a Top 4 seed in the tournament. Key on these two teams when conference play starts. They should have no trouble with any other team that they face in the Big 10. Michigan State lost by 5 points to UCLA. Indiana lost by 15 to Xavier but came back and beat the Southern Illinois Sulukis by 13. Both of these teams will go into the tournament with no more than 5 losses.
7. USC Will Win the Pac-10 and Make the Final Four = I’m going out on a limb here, considering that the Trojans just lost to Kansas, but USC is too talented to NOT win the Pac-10. UCLA is the obvious Pac-10 champ, right? But, wait a second, Becky! Look at USC. They’ve not only got the team, but they’ve got the coach. All of these early games are designed to get the Trojans to learn how to play together once the hard-core Pac-10 schedule begins, USC coach Tim Floyd will have his fellas ready. Expect the Trojans to make some serious waves in the Pac-10, secure a top seed in the NCAA Tournament, and work themselves all the way to Final Four. Take a big swing on this team when they face UCLA. The points, against the spread, should be just right.
Until next week, good luck!
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