Posted on
1/24/2008 4:50:14 PM
NCAA Basketball Betting – Dayton at Xavier
By Charles Jay
The Dayton Flyers (14-2 SU, 7-4 ATS) are one of the more pleasant surprises, not just in the Atlantic-10 but in the entire country. On Thursday night they visit the Cintas Center in Cincinnati to face the Xavier Musketeers (15-4 SU, 7-7-1 ATS) in a matchup of the A-10's two nationally-ranked teams that begins at 8 PM ET.
In the BetUS NCAA basketball betting odds, Xavier is listed as an 11.5-point home favorite.
Here are some of the NCAAB betting trends and stats relative to this matchup:
* DAY has covered four of its last six games
* DAY has won 13 of its last 14 games SU
* DAY has played four of its last six games OVER the total
* DAY has won four of its last five road games SU
* XAV is 1-3-1 ATS in its last five games
* XAV has won seven of its last eight games SU
* XAV has won its last five home games SU
* XAV has won five of the last six meetings SU
* XAV has covered four of the last six meetings
* Six of the last nine meetings have gone UNDER the total
* XAV has covered four of the last five meetings as the home team
* XAV has won the last five meetings SU as the home team
* DAY is shooting 47.6% from the field
* DAY averages 12.5 assists a game
* DAY averages 34.3 rebounds a game
* DAY shoots 65.9% from the free throw line
* XAV averages 16.6 assists per game
* XAV averages 78.9 points per game
* XAV averages 8.5 three-pointers per game
Kind of unusual, in that the team that is ranked higher is getting double digits. Currently Dayton is ranked #16 in the Associated Press poll and #19 in the coaches' poll, while Xavier is rated 23rd by the AP and 22nd by the coaches.
Xavier achieved a season sweep last year, winning by margins of eight and 16 points in the regular season and 21 points in the conference tournament. Xavier has held the shooting edge between these two in each of the last seven meetings, which doesn't bode well when the Musketeers are also the team that makes more three-pointers (8.5 to 6.1 per game).
Brian Roberts is Dayton's big gun, though with 44.7% from three-point range, he's slowed down a bit from his pace earlier in the season. He'll be a marked man against Xavier's Grade A backcourt of Drew Lavender and Stanley Burrell. The Musketeers have great balance not just in scoring (six players averaging double figures) but on the boards as well (four players averaging 4.7 rebounds or more). And in this area Dayton is handicapped by the absence of bulky Charles Little and highly-recruited, standout freshman forward Chris Wright (10.4 ppg, 6 rpg), both of whom are out with injuries.
We suspect that Dayton may not be in the top 20 for long. We're going to go with Xavier, the 11.5-point favorite in the BetUS NCAAB betting odds, over short-handed Dayton in this one.
BetUS NCAA basketball betting odds: XAVIER -11.5
JAY'S PLAY: XAVIER
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(Charles Jay of TotalActionExtra.com gives it the old college try as a regular contributor to the BetUS Locker Room)