Posted on
10/25/2007 8:28:17 PM
Breeders’ Cup Betting: The Sprint and the Turf
By .S. Williamson
Attila’s Storm, a super fast horse for Richard Schosberg, has scratched. That doesn’t mean much other than the early fast horses just got faster come Saturday.
I just got done watching $32,000 Claimers go 44 and change for a half-mile in a seven furlong race and then hanging on at Monmouth Park. Uh, folks, that means that the rain is making the dirt strip even faster at Monmouth.
When it comes to the sprint, forget about looking at a closer. I’m almost confident enough to start booking bets against the morning line favorite, Midnight Lute, myself. Lute comes from the clouds and there is no way a horse coming from the clouds is going to win the Breeders Cup Sprint on Saturday. No way.
But, since Midnight Lute does figure to get most of the win action, we can find some nice long-shots in this race.
The first horse I really like isn’t actually a long-shot at all. That horse is Smokey Stover. The morning line on Smokey Stover is 7 to 2 on the morning line. Smokey Stover can lead or stalk, has a win over the Monmouth strip, and gets the one-hole which means he might have to go to the lead. In this race, that’s not a bad thing. He’s won on at various tracks which mean he ships well and Greg Gilchrist, Smokey’s trainer, is known for throwing tough sprinters.
The two long-shots I like are Commentator, at 12 to 1, and Idiot Proof, at 10 to 1. Idiot Proof holds the record for going six furlongs on the Monmouth Park dirt strip. That makes him a horse to use in the Spring. Not only that, but Idiot Proof showed fantastic guts by taking down Greg’s Gold on the cushion track at Santa Anita in the Grade I Ancient Title in his last. Idiot Proof will also be close to the pace.
At one time, Commentator was considered one of the top handicap horses on the East Coast. Commentator did beat Saint Liam, future horse of the year, in the Grade I Whitney in 2005. That kind of class cannot be taught. What’s really nice about Commentator is that he’s coming off of a lay-off which is a good angle for him. He’s also going six furlongs which is a much better distance for him than going a mile or longer. He’s been training beautifully and Monmouth jock stud, Joe Bravo, to take the reigns. Commentator is 12 to 1 on the morning line.
In the Breeders’ Cup Turf there is really only one horse to like. I hate to say this but Dylan Thomas, who figures to go off at 1 to 2 or so, is an absolute stand-out. Not only is there no other horse even close to his ability in the race, there is no other horse who will like the soft going. It’s been raining like crazy the past couple of days in New Jersey. There should be more rain come Saturday.
Dylan Thomas won both the Grade I Irish Championship Stakes and the Grade I Prix D’Le Arc De Triomphe over the summer. That makes him an absolute stand-out in this race. Not only is he likeliest winner in the Breeders’ Cup Turf, he is the likeliest winner on the Breeders’ Cup card.
How good is Dylan Thomas? In his last race he beat last years’ Breeders’ Cup Turf winner, Red Rocks, who happens to be in this running as well, by six lengths.
Tomorrow will be my write-up on the Breeders’ Cup Distaff and the Breeders’ Cup Classic.
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