Posted on 10/26/2007 9:45:40 PM

Breeders Cup Betting: Have I Got a Filly For You

By Charles Jay

The Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies will be the first championship race of the afternoon (4th on the card) at Monmouth Park in New Jersey and will kick off the greatest day in the world for any horse racing bettor. This race will be contested at a mile and a sixteenth and brings together two-year-old fillies, paying a purse of $2 million, with 54% of that going to the winner.

BREEDERS CUP JUVENILE FILLIES

October 27 - Monmouth Park (Race #4)

Distance: 1-1/16 miles

Purse: $2 million

One of the reasons I don't mind putting forth an opinion on the horses is that I remember something they say very often in the movie business - "Nobody knows anything." In a way, that's true; after all, did you ever see a sportscaster interview Secretariat to find out what was going through his head when he broke from the gate? Know what I mean? We're in the speculation business, and with animals it's even more of a crapshoot; we go on what we see and everybody's got their own opinion.

If that movie thing is true to any extent for horse racing, it is even truer when the contestants have only had a handful of runs around the track.

In evaluating this race from a betting standpoint, let's start things with the favorite. We will use the official Breeders Cup morning line, which may be different from what you find at BetUS as the race approaches:

INDIAN BLESSING (3/1) -- You certainly can't argue with her being the favorite. Trained by Bob Baffert, this filly has the highest Beyer Speed Figure (BSF) of anyone in the field, posting a 97 in her debut at Saratoga in August, albeit at 5-1/2 furlongs. In the mile-long, Grade I Frizette Stakes at Belmont a few weeks ago, she drew away from the field rather early and cruised home with a 4.5-length victory over Backseat Rhythm. Indian Blessing has the most earnings of any entrant in this race (over $277,000).

Another Baffert filly, Cry and Catch Me, who was given a big chance in this race and was 6/1 on the morning line, was scratched on Wednesday with a fever. So that helps to open things up a bit.

So who do we have at 10/1 or better who can make some noise?

A TO THE CROFT (10/1) -- Interestingly enough, this filly has increased or essentially held her speed figure with each succeeding race, even though she's moved up in distance and class every time. That's a contender who could be dangerous if she's peaking at the right time. A To The Croft won her first race, and was a close second in the next three. And she passes a lot of opponents, coming from fifth and eighth place in the last two. She will break from the outside post (as she did last time out) and I expect her to be closing very strongly in the stretch. A To The Croft is the third leading earner in the field ($210,000) and will have the estimable Kent Desormeaux aboard.

BACKSEAT RHYTHM (12/1) -- She has been in with the best in this field - Indian Blessing - and came second in the Frizette. While Indian Blessing was admittedly much the best in that mile test, Backseat Rhythm was closing some ground in the final eighth. She has the best BSF at this distance, a 92 that was achieved on turf in a maiden Special Weight race. In that one, she went wide, and then came on huge. She's in the middle of the pack here, though (the 7-post), which could be troublesome.

And now for my longshot choice...

CLEARLY FOXY (30/1) -- This Canadian-based filly is descended from Cryptoclearance, who was a closer of monster proportions. And she has shown that she might have some of those qualities. In winning her only two starts, she has driven to the wire both times. Within a month's time, her BSF jumped from 76 to 83 while tackling a greater distance (moving from six furlongs to a mile). In the Grade 3 Natalma Stakes at Woodbine, she went off at 17/1 and came on like gangbusters down the stretch, drawing away by 3.5 lengths and beating, among others, stable mate Lickety Lemon, who was unbeaten up to that time. For Mark Casse, one of the most successful trainers in Canada, that was a pleasant surprise. And Clearly Foxy is going from turf to dirt, something that has often offered value for longshots. Casse certainly thinks she can handle any surface; he could have put her in the Juvenile Turf on Friday but chose this event instead.

Keep another thing in mind - pulling off shockers in the turf-to-dirt scenario runs in the family, so to speak. Clearly Foxy is the daughter of Volponi, who won the 2002 Breeders Cup Classic, coming out of nowhere to capture his first Grade I stakes as a 43/1 shot, although he was probably better known as a turf horse. Volponi, the four-year-old son of the aforementioned Cryptoclearance, overtook Medaglia D'Oro at the top of the stretch and blew him away by six and a half lengths.

Can that kind of lightning strike twice? We'll see.

Learn How to Handicap & Bet on the Breeders' Cup

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(Charles Jay of TotalActionExtra.com never "spits the bit." He is a regular contributor to the BetUS Locker Room)