Up to Triple Crown Betting Trends

posted October 5, 2007 at 19:46 in Triple Crown Betting Trends

Most of the top dogs pointing toward the Breeders' Cup Classic Powered by Dodge have had their final preps and we have three weeks to come up with the winner.

One thing is for sure. The three year old crop will be well represented in this year's running. Three of the top four betting choices are likely to be three year olds.

Three year olds have accounted for 7 of the 23 winners of the Classic. The last to do so was Tiznow in 2000. Others to win the Classic are Cat Thief (1999), Concern (1994), A.P. Indy (1992), Unbridled (1990), Sunday Silence (1989), and Proud Truth (1985).

Curlin, Street Sense, and Any Given Saturday lead the three year old crop and along with four year old Lawyer Ron will make up the likely top four top betting choices for the race.

This is one of the strongest three year old crops heading into the Classic, and there is a good chance one of the group will pick up the eighth Classic for the division and along with it possibly horse of the year honors.

Here is a look at the leading three year olds for this year's Classic:

Street Sense: The Kentucky Derby winner comes into the Classic off a loss, finishing in the runner up spot to Hard Spun in the Grade 2 Kentucky Cup Classic at Turfway. The Carl Nafzger trainee is 0 for 3 over the polytrack surface and has done his best running on dirt. Note this colt used the polytrack as his final prep for his two most important wins in his career, the Derby and the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. The poly to dirt angle could work a third time at Monmouth Park later this month.

Curlin: The Preakness winner could not have been more impressive beating older horses in the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont Park on September 30. The colt ran down the top older horse in training in Lawyer Ron. This colt has come a long way, from breaking his maiden in February of this year to a multiple Grade 1 winner, all in a span of eight months. The Steve Asmussen trainee is coming off a career top effort in the Gold Cup and its tough to find a reason why he might regress off that effort.

Any Given Saturday: This colt gave Street Sense all he could handle before coming up a nose short in the Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby back in March, although it seems like that race took place a long time ago. After a third place finish in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial, he failed to fire on Derby Day, checking in eighth. However, since that race he has reeled off three straight wins including the Grade 1 Haskell Invitational, which was over the main track at Monmouth Park. In his last start he beat older horses in the Grade 2 Brooklyn Handicap. The colt is trained by Todd Pletcher, who has won the Eclipse Award for outstanding trainer three years running. The trainer is just 2 for 41 on Breeders' Cup Day.

Hard Spun: A  veteran of all three Triple Crown races, the colt got the best of Street Sense last out in the Grade 2 Kentucky Cup Classic. The colt only had to face three foes in that race and has the tactical edge over the Derby winner as the lone and controlling speed. The Larry Jones trainee will not be afforded such a luxury in the Classic.

Other three year olds with eyes on the prize include:

Cowtown Cat: This colt is a cut below. Maybe two cuts. He is winless in his last four starts, his last victory coming in the Grade 2 Illinois Derby in April at Hawthorne. The colt will be a big price if indeed trainer Todd Pletcher elects to run him in the Classic.

Going Ballistic: Upset Grasshopper in the Grade 2 Super Derby at Louisiana Downs on September 22. The colt switched from turf to dirt to win the race, his previous start a third place finish in the Grade 1 Secretariat at Arlington Park. The colt finished strongly and looks to be getting good at the right time. He could be a factor late at a generous price.

Grasshopper: This colt was not on the radar screen until he gave Derby winner Street Sense all he could handle before settling for second in the Grade 1 Travers at Saratoga, finishing a half length behind the winner. The colt disappointed at a short price in the Super Derby, regressing off his career top effort in his previous start. The colt could bounce back with a better effort in the Classic, but will need a career best to crack the exacta.

Tiago: Here is another three year old that has beaten older, taking the Grade 1 Goodwood Handicap in his last start on September 20 at Santa Anita. The colt was third in the Belmont and seventh in the Derby this spring. He is a multiple Grade 1 winner who is getting completely overlooked. He could be in the mix at a decent price in the Classic.

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