Posted on 10/23/2007 7:42:40 PM

Breeders Cup Off-Track Betting: Ladies Day

By Brian Mulligan

The Breeders’ Cup Distaff was not the greatest race to key on for value early on as 8 of the first dozen winners were favorites but things have changed. There have been some stirring performances over the decades and the advice is to try to get paid in this race. The average winning price over the decades has been nearly $20, with a dollar superfecta averaging $6,500.

The 9-furlong dirt race for fillies and mares three years old and up offers a $2 million purse and this year a full field of 14 is in prospect at Monmouth Park and it could go to any number of runners.

Let’s take a look at the past and see if bettors can get a winning glimpse at the future.

In 1994, the trend for long shots began to become apparent as in the last 13 years there have been 7 double-digit winners including the longest shot, the $113.80 score by Spain. The first 4 runnings were at one and a quarter miles and of those Lady’s Secret posted the fastest win in 2:01.20. At 9 furlongs, the fastest Distaff was recorded by Inside Information in 1:46.15.

There have been small fields, large fields, dominating performances and tragedy as super horse Go For Wand broke down in the 1990 renewal but the buzzword has been champion. In the 22 years of the Cup the winner of the Distaff has gone on to be crowned Eclipse Award champion 11 times.

Princess Rooney won the inaugural Distaff by 7 lengths and Pleasant Home won last year by 9 and a quarter lengths but the largest margin of victory was the 13 and a half-lengths score by Inside Information.

Speed doesn’t kill in this race either as 13 winners went wire to wire or virtually wire to win to win with only 5 deep closers successful over the years including last year’s winner Round Pond and that tactical speed trend figures to continue on the highway known as Monmouth.

This year, the contenders are so closely matched that a bettor cannot settle for a short price and if you are inclined to swing for the fences, spread and gamble in the superfecta.

Consider that just last year, the top two choices Fleet Indian and Pine Island didn’t even finish the race.

The sound advice here for bettors is to shoot for the moon in the ultimate vertical gimmick. Last year in the field of 14, there were 7 horses that went off at post time between 8 and 15-1, and that’s value ladies and gentlemen.

With a fat 13-1 winner, followed by 11, 14 and a hefty 8-1 shot, the superfecta returned over $38,000 for a $2 wager.

Depending on a good draw for post position, this year, sharp bettors should seriously think about taking a swing in this race as it is wide open.

The runner that will need help up front but fits here on her best day and will be a huge price is Balance. She’s won a Grade 1 this year, ran very well against arguably the best distaffer in the world in Nashoba’s Key, and she lost all chance in her last race when unprepared at the start.

If she wins, backers will lose their Balance because the price will be so juicy.

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