Posted on 10/26/2007 7:41:41 PM

Breeders’ Cup Picks: Filly & Mare Turf and the Mile

By D.S. Williamson

Usually, year in and year out, one of the toughest races on Breeders’ Cup day to handicap is the Filly & Mare Turf at 1 3/8 miles over the Monmouth turf course. The reason for this is because information on the fillies on the turf, for some reason, just isn’t the same as information on the males on the turf.

That leaves some handicappers out in the cold. For an obsessive freak like me, who tries to watch every stakes race at every track in the country and overseas, getting this information depends more on memory than on the running lines. The running lines can tell you a thing or two, or three, but that fourth piece of information, that piece that undoubtedly will lead you to betting on the right horse, depends on memory - - on remembering what that horse or horses did physically on the track.

Because of that my pick to win the Filly & Mare Turf is the morning-line chalk, Nashoba’s Key. Now, even though Nashoba’s Key is the morning line chalk, there is no doubt in my mind that she will go off either third or fourth choice in this race. Passage of Time, out of the powerful Henry Cecil barn, is a Grade I winner over the turf at Newmarket. Newmarket, for obvious reasons, is considered a much better turf course than the one Nashoba’s Key has been running on over in Southern California.

But, her turf form isn’t the real reason that I like Nashoba’s Key. Going back to memory, there is not another horse I have seen running in stakes races this year that has had to overcome more troubled trips than Nashoba’s Key.

Nashoba’s Key ran down super fast Hystericalady in the Grade II Milady. Then, she stuck close to the pace versus the fastest filly on American grass, Citronnade, in the Grade I Yellow Ribbon. She is undefeated and has one of the best horse whisperers I’ve ever seen on her back, Joe Talamo. Guts go a long way in the Breeders’ Cup and there’s no more gutsier horse I have seen this year than Nashoba’s Key.

She’s the pick for the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf. Put her together with the before mentioned Passage of Time. If you’re looking for a long-shot there are two. One, Precious Kitten may or may not run. If Kitten does, then place a small win wager on her. She’s the second gutsiest horse I’ve seen run this year. The other long-shot is the European invader, Simply Perfect. Although Simply Perfect does her best work going a mile on the lawn, and might find this 1 3/8 mile race too long for her liking, she is out of Danehill which means she should be able to run all day. She is a good long-shot play in this race.

The Breeders’ Cup Mile is usually more contentious than the Filly & Mare Turf and this year is no exception. The post time chalk was no doubt going to be After Market, but, because of the softening of the turf course, After Market will probably scratch. That leaves favorite status to fall on Excellent Art, out of the Aidan O’Brien barn. Excellent Art finished second in the Grade I Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Ascot in his last race. There is nothing really to dislike about this son of Pivotal, but because his price is going to be so short, I’m tempted to look elsewhere.

I’ve settled on two figure horses in this race and one true long-shot. The figure horses are: Trippi’s Storm and Jeremy.

Trippi’s Storm has really come into his own. In his last race he beat After Market by a half-length in the Grade II Kelso. Looking at his past performances, and remembering how awesome he looked in that race, Trippi’s Storm is a legitimate contender in the mile because he can stay close to the pace or come from the clouds. He was running in much longer races during the spring and summer, but the mile length of the Kelso proved to be the perfect distance for this guy. He’s got a huge shot in the Mile.

The other horse I like is Jeremy. Jeremy lost to Excellent Art by a nose in the QEII at Ascot. Now, if Excellent Art is a great wager at 2 to 1, then what is Jeremy a great wager at? The morning line on Jeremy is 5 to 1. Anything close to that makes this guy an overlay. He is simply a very good European turf horse going against a lot of American wannabes.

The real long-shot in this race is former Grade I winner Silent Name. 30 to 1 on the morning line, coming out of a terrible post, Silent Name is 4 out of 10 going a mile on the lawn. But, the real reason that you have to place a small win wager on this guy is because he just switched barns from Gary Mandella to Bobby Frankel. Frankel is a master at getting horses ready off the bench. Now, he gets a former Grade I winner who loves the lawn and who isn’t facing the monsters that he has in the past. Watch-out.

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