Posted on 10/26/2007 6:23:22 PM

Breeders’ Cup Wagering: The Distaff & The Classic

By D.S. Williamson

Two of the most intriguing races on the Breeders’ Cup card tomorrow are the Breeders’ Cup Distaff, in which fillies and mares will go 1 1/8 miles over the Monmouth Park dirt course, and the Breeders’ Cup Classic in which horses will go 1 ¼ miles over the Monmouth Park dirt course.

Both races offer deep fields and in my analysis of each race it took some time for me to settle on two horses in each race.

I’ve come up with a logical contender and a long-shot for both the Distaff and the Classic. My suggestion is that, if you agree with me, you use all four horses in exacta, trifecta, and win and place wagers. Both races are extremely deep and choosing one horse over the other will be difficult for any handicapper to do.

First, the Distaff:

Logical Contender – Unbridled Belle, morning line odds of 9 to 2

Long-shot – Hystericalady, morning line odds of 8 to 1

Unbridled Belle has really come into her own in her past three races winning the Grade II Delaware Handicap and Grade I Beldame. She finished second at Saratoga between those two bookend wins, but, looking at the form, she did so after a troubled trip and that was Saratoga. I have to believe that Todd Pletcher will have her ready to fire a big shot in her and coming out of Borken Vow she should have no problems with an off-track. However, one of the worst races of her career was off an off-track. So, that may hinder some horse bettors from laying money on her. All that means is that she keeps her odds for us!

Hystericalady is the speed of this field, has won 7 out of 14 lifetime starts, loves an off-track, has a win at Monmouth, and is going artificial surfaces to conventional dirt. That gives her a big edge in her. What’s the problem? She’s got to hustle out of the 13 hole in order to get position early. She might have to rate right behind Indian Vale and there is a question as to whether or not Hystericalady can rate. Still, the price, which figures to be closer to 12 to 15 to 1 instead of the 8 to 1 morning line, is too big on a 50% lifetime winner for me to pass on her.

Now, the Classic:

Logical Contender – Lawyer Ron, morning line odds of 5 to 2

Long-shot – Hard Spun, morning line odds of 8 to 1

Some of the racing “experts” have said that Lawyer Ron isn’t a true 1 ¼ mile horse. I don’t believe that for a second. The only time that extra 1/8 of a mile is overrated when talking about speed horses. Why? True, talented speed horses like Lawyer Ron, and my long-shot in this race, can ration their speed forever. The key to whether or not a speed horse can win is the track condition as well as the toughness of his or her competitors in the race.

Street Sense, Curlin, and Any Given Saturday are all plenty tough enough, but they won’t be tough enough on the Monmouth Park dirt course, and they won’t be tough enough in the mud. Lawyer Ron has a lot of Tiznow in him. Tiznow wasn’t invincible but when push came to shove he just wasn’t going to let another horse pass him. That’s why Lawyer Ron is the likeliest winner in the Classic. He’s the toughest horse.

Hard Spun could be a carbon copy of Tiznow. The thing about Hard Spun that a lot of the “experts” haven’t noticed is that he’s finally grown into his talent. What I mean by that is Hard Spun used to be a leggy horse. Now, he’s a built horse. Lawyer Ron did the same thing last year after the Breeders’ Cup. Hard Spun has done it before the Breeders’ Cup. Spun’s muscles are as big as his heart. That means that he can ration that incredible early speed even more. That also means that he has a great chance of taking this one to the house.

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