posted May 23, 2008 at 12:44 in Triple Crown Betting Trends

Wouldn’t it be something if Trainer Barclay Tagg, who was oh so close to winning the Triple Crown in 2003, were to thwart Big Brown’s Belmont Stakes victory with an unheralded, seemingly overrated pest of a horse like Tale of Ekati?

I guess for sports betting and Big Brown fans it wouldn’t be “something”. But for online racebook bettors, whose sole goal should always be to find the best online betting line available on the horse with the best chance to win, Tale of Ekati sure has that upset look about him.

First, I must admit that I had Tale of Ekati on my list of horses that had no chance of winning the Kentucky Derby. Why? Because he benefited by getting the rail in his Wood Memorial win while War Pass had to set a blistering pace. Tale of Ekati looked to me like one of those horses who would just get lucky here and there but would never turn into a real 3-year old on the level of a Funny Cide.

I had my doubts about Funny Cide too and those doubts turned out to be true as Funny Cide never regained his Preakness form.

So, why then do I believe that Tale of Ekati has a chance in the Belmont Stakes when I was so down on him in the Kentucky Derby?

Simple logistics, really. The Derby is run at 1 ¼ miles. Most horses entering the Kentucky Derby are fresh. Tale of Ekati’s chief rival, Big Brown, will not be fresh at all. Two races in the span of four weeks will take its toll on any horse. That includes Big Brown.

The Belmont is run at 1 ½ miles. The key in winning the Belmont is either cruising on an easy lead ala Commendable in 2000, kicking on at the exact time, like Rags to Riches did last year, or sustaining a long, driving kick like Big Brown will probably do this year.

Big Brown’s modus operandi is to get distance between himself and the rest of the field at the top of the stretch. I don’t see why Kent Desormeaux would change tactics in the Belmont Stakes.

That means that Big Brown will try to separate himself from Tale of Ekati at the top of the stretch. Here’s the thing - - Tale of Ekati appears to have the speed to sit about two or three lengths off of Big Brown. Once Big Brown kicks it into gear, Tale of Ekati need only stick with him and then “outlast” Big Brown.

Can Tale of Ekati do it? Maybe. There are a few things working in his favor.
For one, Tale of Ekati will be fresh while Big Brown will be in his third race in five weeks, fourth race in ten weeks. Most thoroughbreds run maybe once or twice every three or four weeks.

Second, Big Brown’s breeding does not point him towards running well in the Belmont Stakes. His father, Boundary, is out of Danzig. Danzig’s other children are usually most effective at a mile. Big Brown’s mother, Mien, is out of Nureyev. Nureyev is also known to drop milers.

Tale of Ekati is bred to run all day. His father Tale of the Cat, is out of the great Storm Cat. His mother, Silence Beauty, is out of the great Sunday Silence who dropped marathon turf runners in Japan for years.

Finally, Tale of Ekati might just be coming into his own as a 3-year old. We need to remember that a lot of 3-year olds start to blossom right around now. It wasn’t until this time of the year that Tiznow, who didn’t run in any of the Triple Crown races in 2000, turned into a monster colt. Tiznow ended up winning the Breeder’s Cup Classic that year.

Who’s to say that Tale of Ekati isn’t another Tiznow? Ready to turn into a verifiable monster come the Belmont Stakes?

The BetUS online racebook odds of 16 to 1 are perfect for me to take the chance that Tale of Ekati might do just that.

Keep checking the Locker Room all through the Triple Crown season, as we will cover the trainers, horses and jockeys in each race. You can get your early Belmont Stakes at Belmont Park bets in now in the BetUS sportsbook in the Future / props section, under Horse Futures: 2008 Belmont Stakes.