Posted on 5/16/2007 7:00:42 PM

Betting the Preakness Stakes Props

By BetUS Staff

Sometimes it really isn’t about whether you win or lose.

In the handicapping world, how you play the game does indeed count for something – thanks to proposition bets. This Saturday’s Preakness Stakes at Pimlico gives horseplayers an alternative to picking a winner out of what should be a competitive field. Two alternatives, actually.

Time Props

The first of our BetUS.com Preakness props asks whether the exact winning time of the race will be “over” or “under” 115.25 seconds. That’s 1:55.25 to you and me. Times at the Preakness have grown faster as the horses themselves and the technologies behind their sport have developed. Over the last ten years, only three Preakness champions have beaten the aforementioned time; however, that includes the last two winners, Bernardini and Afleet Alex.

 

Determining whether the Preakness will be a slow or fast race is a similar exercise to betting the total in a basketball game. You need to look not only at the speed of the horses involved, but the way they interact and the environment in which they work.

A race with a front-running sprint specialist ought to be a quick one; this Saturday, we have the likes of Hard Spun, Flying First Class and Xchanger pointed at Pimlico. Weather is another crucial aspect of this prop; at press time, the forecast for Baltimore called for mostly sunny conditions throughout the weekend. No slop – times should drop.

Winning Margin

The other Preakness prop under discussion here asks whether the winning margin will be “over” or “under” 2-1/4 lengths. That’s the margin by which Street Sense won the 2007 Kentucky Derby over Hard Spun and Curlin. All three horses are expected to be in the Preakness, with the official draw slated for Wednesday.

Every race is different, of course, but if things go as they did at Churchill Downs, we should see another tight race. Street Sense had to charge from 19 lengths back to win the Derby; since the Preakness is the shortest of the Triple Crown races at 1-3/16 mile (compared to 1-1/4 mile for the Derby), Street Sense probably cannot afford to fall that far off the pace at Pimlico.

Curlin is also more of a “shallow” closer, and Hard Spun’s front-running style will almost certainly see him fall back to the pack even over the shorter distance. On the other side of the coin, if the Preakness field does include as many sprinters as we’re expecting, that lowers the likelihood of a slow grind with a mass finish like we saw at the Blue Grass Stakes in April.

The Preakness is scheduled for 5:00 p.m. Eastern time on Saturday, with NBC on hand to provide the television coverage.

Note: The complete field for this year's Preakness Stakes will be set on Wednesday, May 16.

Keep checking the Locker Room all through the Triple Crown season, as we will cover the trainers, horses and jockeys in each race. You can get your early Preakness Stakes odds at Pimlico Racetrack and place your bets in now in the BetUS sportsbook in the Future / props section, under Horse Futures: 2007 Preakness Stakes.