Posted on
2/15/2008 11:26:05 PM
Betting on Horses - Padding Your Bankroll
By Michael Dempsey
National horse racing handicapper Michael Dempsey will attempt to pad his bankroll and yours with his daily column. He will feature at least one Pick 3 or Pick 4 plays from a major track along with coverage of major stakes races, longshots, and will keep you up to date on what is happening on the circuits he covers. Don't miss Wednesday's report where Michael will keep you up to date with track bias reports for the major circuits.
It’s not often we head out to Oldsmar, Florida, but that is where we end up today. The Sam Davis Stakes is a prep for the Tampa Bay Derby and is becoming a good spot to find a few talented three year olds trying to catch Derby Fever.
The last two winners of the Sam Davis were Bluegrass Cat and Any Given Saturday, who both went on to be Grade 1 winners.
So it’s off to Tampa Bay Downs today as we attempt to pad our bankroll.
But first, let’s stop at the Big A for the Hollie Hughes:
Aqueduct Race 8 Hollie Hughes Handicap Post time 3:49 et
#1 Premium Wine
#8 Gold and Roses
#5 Stormin Normandy
#2 Whistlin’
#1 Premium Wine is coming off a sharp win against Alw-2 optional claimers where the colt earned a near career top. The colt has landed in the exacta in 8 of his 9 career starts and should get a perfect pace set up here. The race is top heavy with early speed and Ramon should get a good tracking trip while saving ground along the inside.
#8 Gold and Roses tracked the early pace and came up empty last out in the Promonroe and I was expecting to see a better effort out of him in that outing. The gelding has not picked up a win since last summer where he won the NY bred Morrissey earning a career top speed fig. He has run well on the inner, landing in the exacta in 6 of 10 starts and may benefit from a hot early pace. Was sent off at 3/1 last out and we should catch a better price here today.
Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 2/1 or better
EX: 1,8 / 1,2,5,8
TRI: 1,8 / 1,2,5,6,8 / 1,2,5,6,8
Tampa Bay Downs Race 9 Endeavour Stakes (G3) Post time 4:14 et
#8 Lear’s Princess
#6 Dreaming of Anna
#2 Take the Ribbon
#11 Meribel
#8 Lear’s Princess is making her first start since going off as the lukewarm favorite in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff where she finished a disappointing tenth after a rough trip in the sea of slop. She had come into the race off a game win two back in the G1 Gazelle going nine furlongs on the main track at Belmont. She has been on the turf twice in her career, beating Alw-1 foes in her first start against winners and then taking the $67K Tweedside last summer. She has been working sharply over the turf at Palm Meadows for McLaughlin barn that is 30% winners (with a +ROI) with horses coming back off a 61-180 day layoff.
#6 Dreaming of Anna has not missed landing in the exacta in her seven starts on turf, five of those wins including the G3 Pucker Up two back and the Va. Oaks three back. Last out she set the early fractions and could not go with Bit of Whimsy, who returned to win the G2 Mrs. Revere in her next outing on 11/10. She has run well fresh and is sent out by Catalano barn that is 32% winners with horses coming back off a 61-180 day break. She will be the one to catch in here and if she gets loose early will prove tough to run down.
Wagering
WIN: #8 to win at 5/2 or better
EX: 6,8 / 2,6,8,11
TRI: 6,8 / 2,6,8,11 / 2,6,8,10,11
Tampa Bay Downs Race 10 Sam Davis Stakes Post time 4:52 et)
#3 Wonder Mon
#8 Z Humor
#1 Wise Answer
#6 Big Truck
#3 Wonder Man is going to need to jump up big time to win here, but I have to think this colt is better than he showed last out. Two back he was a good looking winner against Alw-1 foes, and that effort was good enough the connections decided to head south with him. Capuano is a fixture in Maryland and does not venture out very often. He trained Captain Bodgit. The colt has worked well at Palm Meadows since his last start, which was a dull fifth against Alw-2 foes at Gulfstream going nine furlongs. We should see a generous price and fact trainer putting him in this tougher spot bodes well we have not seen the best of him yet. Also like the fact that “Dunks” still thinks enough of him to come in and ride.
#8 Z Humor is then one to beat and will be a short price. Finished in a dead heat in the G3 Delta Jackpot last out after a fifth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvie. Hard to look past that third in the G1 Champagne behind war Pass and Pyro. Earned the top last out speed fig in the effort at Delta and Mott can have them ready to go off the break, hitting at a 23% clip (with a +ROI) with horses coming back off a 61-180 day layoff. Only real knock on this colt is going to be the light price.
Wagering
WIN: #3 to win at 8/1 or better
EX: 3,8 / 1,3,6,8
TRI: 3,8 / 1,3,6,8 / 1,3,4,6,8,9
Good luck padding your bankroll today!
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