Posted on 2/29/2008 3:51:15 PM

Betting on the Horses Ides of February

By Brian Mulligan

On the Roman calendar, the term ides was used for the 15th day of months March, May, July and October and the 13th day the other months but horse bettors had better beware of the Ides of February as it compares to the running of races at Santa Anita.

Former colleague Brad Free recounted for his Daily Racing Form fans recently the changes that day on the track and we’ll try to take his premise a step further in an attempt to isolate some winning horse bets.

After a quick honeymoon of Pro-Ride and Cushion Track at Anita when the surface was kind to all styles, the track changed on February 13.

If the racing had been pushed out a few hundred yards to the 210 freeway, the early results would have been much the same; it more resembled a Daytona 500 than a horse race.

As Brad wrote, cheap claimers were on fire. The opener was won by a $12,500 cheapster who went 1:08.31, that’s racehorse times ladies and gentlemen.

By the time the 4th race came around, a $16,000 claimer was clocked in 1:07.61.

Something was up and local officials then decided to harrow the track before the 6th race, and guess what, the whole thing changed.

A full house of $25,000 sellers went in the 6th and instead of the speed bias early in the day, the leaders at the half finished 10th, 5th, and 4th respectively.

The winner of the 7-furlong race still didn’t have the lead as the passed the 6-furlong marker in 1:10.96 and finally drew off in the lane for his second win.

The next race was down the hill, so let’s examine the final two events, then recap to try to find future winners from this card.

The 8th was won by a very nice horse in Doppio, who got a perfect stalk and pounce trip.

No surprise here, except for the fact that he was winning his 7th race, had faced much better in his career, yet his time for the 6 furlongs of 1:09.30 pales in comparison to the freaks early in the day.

The nightcap was won by a stone-cold closer who was drawn outside and came away when asked. Of the early speeds, El Vic held on the best and he must be watched if the track goes back to a more speed friendly shape before the meet ends.

Another to watch out of the nightcap is Oldtophatandtails, a Paula Capestro colt who not only didn’t like the track, but he didn’t like breaking from the rail this day either.

With an outside post, he won’t be a maiden for long. Premier Won and Timocracy were also disadvantaged by the now tiring surface.

Runners coming out of the 6th race that horse bettors should follow are Just Like Her and Kilmartin Hall.

Just Like Her was debuting for an obscure barn but the filly could not use her stalking speed to the best result, as she was finished before they hit the top of the lane.

Kilmartin Hall was kind of in tough in his first start vs. winners, but he had a brief lead between horses at one point and gave way like a horse that tries his heart out.

If either of those runners gets a more speed conducive strip, they may run and hide.

Clever horse bettors not only have to look at results, but WHY those results occurred.

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