Posted on 5/2/2008 1:57:50 PM

Betting on Horses Online and Padding Your Bankroll

By Michael Dempsey

National horse racing handicapper Michael Dempsey will attempt to pad his bankroll and yours with his daily column. He will feature at least one Pick 3 or Pick 4 play from a major track along with coverage of major stakes races, longshots, and he will keep you up to date on what is happening on the circuits he covers.

Kentucky Derby Day is here and set the alarm, as post time for the first race is 11:00 ET. There is a 12 race card on tap at Churchill Downs including six stakes.

Here is a quick look at the stakes action followed by my Derby selections:

Race 5 Churchill Downs S. (G2)

The stakes action kicks off in the fifth race today. A field of eight older horses will go seven furlongs on the main track. Wanderin Boy is the 3/1 morning line favorite but is making his first start since last fall. Look for Junior College, who raced against the bias last out to rebound in this spot.

Race 6 La Troienne Stakes (G3)

A field of nine three year old fillies will go 7 ½ furlongs on the main track. Trainer Steve Asmussen will send out the likely favorite in Alina, who was the pacesetter and checked in second in the Fantasy Stakes (G2) at Oaklawn Park. If Bsharpsonata wins the Oaks on Friday, look for Game Face in this race. She ran second to Bsharpsonata in her last start in the Davona Dale (G2).

Race 7 Churchill Distaff Turf Mile Stakes (G3)

Dreaming of Anna will be the favorite in this race, contested at a mile on the turf. She went gate to wire last out to win the Hillsborough Stakes (G3) at Tampa in a good looking effort. Bill Mott sends out Sharp Susan for her second start off the layoff and is the main threat.

Race 8 Humana Distaff Stakes (G1)

Hystericalady lost the Breeders’ Cup Distaff by a neck last fall and is coming off a sharp win in the Azeri Stakes (G3) at Oaklawn Park. She looks tough in this spot. Miraculous Miss faced the boys in her last start, a good third in the DeFrancis Dash (G1) at Laurel Park.

Race 9 Woodford Reserve Turf Classic (G1)

Einstein might be the “smart” pick in here coming off a good second in the Makers Mark (G1) last out at Keeneland. He will have to run down Thorn Song again, who is 2 for 2 over the Churchill Downs weeds.

Race 10 Kentucky Derby G1 (6:04 et)

#6 Z Fortune 15/1

#10 Colonel John 4/1

#20 Big Brown 3/1

#4 Court Vision 20/1

#19 Gayego 15/1

#15 Adriano 30/1

#12 Smooth Air 20/1

Analysis: #6 Z Fortune is coming off a solid effort last out in the G2 Arkansas Derby and is one of just four in here that earned a triple digit Beyer in their last Derby prep. The colt bobbled slightly coming out of the gate and raced wide much of the trip, unable to get to the winner #10 Gayego. The colt won his first three starts including a G3 going a mile at Fair Grounds and appears to be heading in the right direction form wise. He has enough pedigree to get the distance. He is by Siphon, who won the '96 Hollywood Gold Cup (G1) and in '97 won the Santa Anita 'Cap (G1). His mare Fortunate Faith was a G2 winner at nine furlongs as a two year old. Asmussen figures to have learned a thing or two with Curlin, who was third in last year's Derby. Drew a better post than he did last out at Oaklawn and just needs a good trip from mid pack under Albarado. With barn having #6 Pyro in here, our top pick should get overlooked at the windows.

#10 Colonel John has not missed landing in the exacta in his six career starts and is coming off a career best when winning the Santa Anita Derby (G1) last out. The colt has raced exclusively on synthetic surfaces in his six-race career and will try the real stuff for the first time here. If his bullet work over the Churchill Downs main track on 4/27 (five furlongs in :57.4) is any indication, he can handle dirt. He is by BC Classic champ Tiznow out of the mare Sweet Damsel, who won on dirt routing twice and was a three-time turf winner. The colt is in good hands with Harty, a former top assistant to Bob Baffert. Has a good foundation as a two year old and looks primed for a good effort here in his third start as a three year old.

#20 Big Brown is trying to do something Curlin could not do last year and that's win the Derby off three career starts. He went gate to wire for a very impressive victory last out in the Florida Derby (G1). The colt draws a tough post with speed drawn just to his inside. Then last horse to win the Derby off just three career starts was Regret back in 1915. Dutrow has been showing extreme confidence in his horse this week and the colt does own the top last out speed fig. The main question mark is what price we would have to settle on to back this guy for the top spot, and its likely going to be too short.

#4 Court Vision made a good late rally to finish third last out in the Wood (G1) behind #2 Tale of Ekati. They came home slow in the stretch in the Wood and the colt got a good pace set up to check in third, beaten 1 3/4 lengths. Mott adds blinkers to the mix here and I still don't think we have seen the best out of this colt, who has hovered near the top of my Derby List most of the spring. He is going to be running late, and likely is going to be a generous price.

Wagering

WIN: #6 to win at 8/1 or better.

EX: 6,10 / 4,6,10,19,20

TRI: 6,10 / 4,6,10,20 / 4,6,9,10,12,15,16,19,20

Good luck padding your bankroll today!

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