Posted on
4/9/2008 3:48:28 PM
Wagering on Horses – Now or Never Time
By Brian Mulligan
Two of the three biggest sports betting Kentucky Derby preps were run last weekend along with the Illinois Derby and those sportsbook horse bettors that want to have a bob or two on the line the first Saturday in May have to scrutinize the winners and losers of these preps and start to eliminate the inferiors sophomores.
War Emblem used the Illinois race as a winning steppingstone to the Derby but he is the only runner in history that has done so.
This year Recapturetheglory upset Denis of Cork among others but don’t look for him to be around in Louisiville when the smoke clears despite his impressive 102 Beyer performance.
Glory’s only other win came by a nose also at Hawthorne and he was lucky enough last week to catch a race with absolutely no speed. Once he put away the other zip, Golden Spikes, it was just a parade.
He’s Kentucky bound and horse bettors have one good thing to think about if this is their ticket and that’s the trainer. Louie Roussel saddled Risen Star to win two-thirds of the Triple Crown after missing in the Derby and that may be this colt’s best asset.
He also won’t get away setting such a smooth pace so horse bettors need to only use this guy if they are shooting for the moon with a 25-1 shot or so.
In New York, Big Apple fans made War Pass a prohibitive chalk in the Wood Memorial and he ran super but, as his pedigree suggests, was not able to utilize his stamina to cash.
The winner, Tale of Ekati, posted a winning 93 Beyer figure and again his trainer will not be at his first rodeo in the Kentucky Derby. Conditioner Barclay Tagg had Funny Cide win the first two classics in 2003.
Astute horse bettors have one solid thing to look forward to and that’s the great rider Edgar Prado. He gave this son of Tale of the Cat a super trip and it’s obvious he knows how to read the Daily Racing Form.
The race included a classically structured entry of Inner Light, a speed horse, and a closer in Court Vision and Prado knew he had to be closer to the pace than usual to win.
He was and he did.
On to California and the soldier known as Colonel John. He nailed the speed late posting a 95 Beyer collaring the likes of speedball Bob Black Jack and pacesetter Coast Guard.
Horse bettors will have to try to imagine how Colonel John will transfer his synthetic form to the conventional confines of Churchill Downs.
One thing is clear about this Colonial, he commands respect and he has fired every single time. He has never been worse than second, is coming to the spring fresh, has a bit of speed but can be placed anywhere as he was shuffled to ninth the other day and he’s bred to run all day.
His sire Tiznow is a double Breeders’ Cup Classic hero.
Clever horse bettors as this point need to start cutting players as this point and they should know that 39 of the past 50 Kentucky Derby winners finished one/two in one of the 5 key preps. Using that criteria of those run last weekend, the Wood and SA Derby, it would eliminate stakes winners Yankee Bravo, El Gato Malo, Giant Moon, and Anak Nakal.
Colonel John’s trainer, Eoin Harty, who was assistant to three-time Derby winner Bob Baffert, knows that you have to have a plan to have Derby success and he has one.
Harty: “I’ll give him two works here and ship to Churchill about 12 days out…Historically, any horse that’s run well here and come out of this race in one piece usually shows up and runs a very good race on Derby Day and that’s what we’re hoping for.”
Astute horse racing bettors should circle this guy as a legit player next month.
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