Posted on
5/2/2008 8:16:44 PM
Betting Online on the Kentucky Derby – Big Brown
By Eric Williams
Barring the unforeseen, Richard Dutrow Jr.’s Big Brown will be the favorite when the gates open for the Kentucky Derby and the question for just about every horse bettor in the world is what to do with this freak?
He has been sensational in his three starts, overcame post 12 winning the Florida Derby and no horse at the entire Gulfstream meet had come close to winning from such a marooned post. BB also has proven he doesn’t absolutely need the lead to win but that was against allowance horses.
To fully evaluate whom Big Brown has been beating, astute horse bettors can look to what his rivals did after completing the trifecta against BB.
In his debut, Doctor Cal ran second to BB. Three races later Doctor Cal graduated, but by only a neck with a 79 Beyer at Gulfstream, then Cal was man handled in allowance company getting beat by over 8 lengths.
Wotan ran third to BB in the debut, and then was second beat just over a length in his next and final start.
In BB’s first win vs. winners, Heaven’s Awesome completed the exacta but then returned to run 8th at Tampa.
The third place finisher Deputiformer has not raced back.
In the Florida Derby, Smooth Air, who is by a sire that commands only a $3,500 stud fee ran second and has not raced back while the show horse in the Fla. Derby, Tomcito, has never won in the United States and returned to run 6th in the Lexington at Keeneland.
Granted, brilliance is brilliance and it’s possible Big Brown is just a freak, but Curlin came to the Derby last year unbeaten after three races and he couldn’t cash.
The last Derby winner that was so green was Regret in 1915 and only 2 horses in the last 6 decades, Sunny’s Halo and Street Sense last year, were able to win the Derby after just 2 preps.
As far as blood is concerned, backers of Big Brown have to hope the influences of his bottom side come to the fore in the Kentucky Derby. By pure sprinter Boundary, BB’s distance power has to come from his dam’s side with the Nureyev blood and from his second dam sire Lear Fan.
BB’s dam won her only race by a neck at a mile and a sixteenth on turf.
Boundary’s best runner was the English juvenile champ Minardi, but that guy only won two sprints and was crushed in all of his efforts going a mile on grass.
BB’s half bro Snake River Canyon was only one for 12, but the win was at 9 furlongs. He was 6th in his other 9-furlong try and was crushed when sent a mile and a half.
Finally, horse bettors will eventually have to visit the foot issue BB has. After his current owners bought him, BB got an abscess in his left front foot and that put him in limbo for 6 weeks. His right foot had the same injury late in 2007 and it is just caused by the way his feet hit on a hard surface. And for any of us that have had bone spurs, it’s very hard to go if you don’t have your wheels.
BB was equipped with special glue-on shoes for his allowance win before his Florida Derby coming out party.
Cagey horse bettors will go back and look at that Fla. Derby win for clues to the future and one thing that is evident is that although BB was super impressive, he did run like an inexperienced horse and ducked in sharply in the final 100 yards.
Coming to the Derby, you can’t have a pimple, you can’t have a cold, you can’t run green and astute horse bettors will take all of that into account before taking TOO short on number on Big Brown on May 3rd
Keep checking the Locker Room all through the Triple Crown season, as we will cover the trainers, horses and jockeys in each race. You can get your early Kentucky Derby Odds at Churchill Downs bets in now in the BetUS sportsbook in the Future / props section, under Horse Futures: 2008 Kentucky Derby Betting.