Posted on 4/25/2008 4:13:41 PM

Betting Online on Horses – Barbaro, the Sequel

By Brian Mulligan

Cab drivers, kindergarten students, candle stick makers and even nuns got caught up in the Barbaro saga a couple of seasons back and although Michael’s Matz’s new future star Visionaire may not be quite as talented, horse bettors should not count him out if he gets to the Big Dance in Louisville.

As of mid April, he sits toward the bottom in the Graded earnings race and that would just barely allow him to make the race, but he moved to 19 with the defection of War Pass so he does have a bit of breathing room.

As a son of Grand Slam, Visionaire may be pushed to the limit to get the mile and quarter of the Kentucky Derby. His sire never cashed going two turns but was quick enough to set a track record at 5 and a half furlongs at 2.

His dam also was purely a sprinter but if you go deep into the pedigree, there is a glimmer of hope for stamina fans.

A kin to Visionaire’s dam’s dam won at 9 furlongs on turf on the way to a near $500,000 bankroll.

Visionaire was originally a $300,000 purchase but when it was noticed that he had a chip in his knee and had to have surgery, he was resold at auction for $220,000.

All Visionaire has done in his career is fire every time except for the Blue Grass, when he was caught wide from post 12 and only made an impact late.

Astute horse bettors need to watch that Blue Grass effort from the get go to get a full concept of how good Visionaire ran despite finishing fifth. He was definitely compromised when he was drawn outside and he has the worse kind of style for that post.

Back in the day Bill Shoemaker used to say that if a horse just had middling speed, he was doomed from the outside. He couldn’t hope to clear and make the lead and he couldn’t just take back because it was against a horse’s nature with the middling velocity, so what happens is a runner just gets fooled into being like on a treadmill from the outside path.

And that’s exactly what happened to Visionaire. After trying to push the pace, his rider elected to drop him back to last and hope that a hot pace would help him.

It didn’t pan out that way. The leaders kept on going and rider Jose Lezcano was foil except for the fact that Visionaire tried right to the end and was finishing very well past the wire.

As an accomplished equestrian, Matz knows that you can’t squeeze the lemon when it comes to pointing to a particular race and he has prepared Visionaire with the Derby in mind since Day One.

With the days winding down to the Derby, cagey horse bettors must try to read in between the lines of the connections of the contenders.

This is what Visionaire’s trainer said BEFORE the Blue Grass. Matz: “Things have gone pretty well to plan. What we’re really looking for is a race from where he can keep going in the same direction. It would certainly be nice to win the Blue Grass, but success would be if he just has a race where he finishes well and that he can improve on that to go to the Derby.”

Aha, a master plan.

Matz again: “I think because of his disposition, he’s sort of outrunning his pedigree. He has a very good late turn of foot, and the one thing you can’t judge is his heart.”

If anybody knows about heart it’s Barbaro’s former trainer and if Visionaire has a heart half as big as Barbaro’s clever horse bettors would be wise to give him a long, long look in Louisville.

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