Posted on
4/18/2008 3:41:29 PM
Wagering On Horses and Padding Your Bankroll
By Michael Dempsey
National horse racing handicapper Michael Dempsey will attempt to pad his bankroll and yours with his daily column. He will feature at least one Pick 3 or Pick 4 play from a major track along with coverage of major stakes races, longshots, and he will keep you up to date on what is happening on the circuits he covers.
Keeneland had an excellent betting card on tap for Friday, which includes a good match up between Meribel and Panty Raid in the Grade 3 Doubledogdare Stakes.
We’ll invest $24 in the late Pick 3, which comes from Keeneland. In addition, we have a live longshot as our top pick in today’s featured race, a $50,000 claimer going six furlongs on the polytrack surface.
Today's Play of the Day from Keeneland:
KEE Race 6 Clm $50,000 (3:40 et)
#9 Daring Julie 10/1
#3 Spanish Ghost 5/2
#6 Simply Run 2/1
#7 Missing Sefa 15/1
Analysis: #9 Daring Julie was not a threat last out in a seventh place finish versus optional claimers and drops into a softer spot here for a straight tag of $50K. She owns back speed figs that are a good fit and has won eight races on the fake stuff in 18 career starts. She beat conditioned optional claimers at Turfway four back last December earning a speed fig good enough to be in the mix here.
#3 Spanish Ghost made a mild late run to finish fifth last out in a $50K stake over the poly at Turfway and looks well spotted here going for a $50K tag. The filly beat Alw-3 optional claimers two back at Fair Grounds on turf. She is a three-time winner on poly.
Wagering
WIN: #9 to win at 9/2 or better.
EX: 3,9 / 3,6,7,9
TRI: 3,9 / 3,6,7,9 / 3,6,7,8,9
Keeneland Late Pick 3
Starting in Race 8: $1: 1,2,3,10 / 5,6 / 1,6,7 = $24
KEE Race 8 OClm $80,000N$Y (4:40 et)
#3 Birdbirdistheword, #1 Badge of Truth, #2 Dominican, #10 Spider Power
#3 Birdbirdistheword is coming off a fourth place finish in the $65K Challenger at Tampa. The G3 winner ran fourth on the poly back in '06 in the G1 Breeders Futurity. The colt is a stakes winner on turf and dirt and could pull off the upset here in optional calming company.
#1 Badge of Truth came up the inside with a good late rally to finish in the runner up spot against Alw-3 optional claimers over the poly at Woodbine. The winner of the race was Torquay, who came back to win a $126K stake in Canada. barn is solid off the bench, hitting at a 29% clip (with a +ROI) with horses coming back off a 61-180 day layoff. Five year old seldom runs a bad one and the 15/1 ML looks fair enough.
KEE Race 9 Doubledogdare S. G3 (5:10 et)
#5 Meribel, #6 Panty Raid
#5 Meribel finished gamely for third last out in the G3 Endeavour behind gate to wire winner Dreaming of Anna, who came back to win the G3 Hillsborough in her next outing on 3/15. She has done most of her best running on grass but she did win the G3 Valley View here on poly back in '06 in race taken off the turf. She has a recency edge of the morning line chalk in here and has the perfect running style for the way this poly is playing.
#6 Panty Raid is the one to beat but she is coming back off a five-month layoff. Barn is 20% winners with horses coming back off a 61-180 day layoff. In her last start she pressed the early pace, took over the lead and weakened to finish third in the G2 Falls City at Churchill. She won the G1 Spinster over the poly here last fall. She will be tough to beat if Pletcher has her fully cranked although the price is going to be on the light side.
KEE Race 10 Alw $54,000N1X (5:40 et)
#1 Written in Stone, #7 William Tell, #6 Giant Deputy
#1 Written in Stone has been the beaten chalk in each of his last four starts. Last out made a mild late rally to finish third going 5 1/2 furlongs on turf. His career best came on poly at Woodbine when finishing a game second in his first go against winners. Gelding broke his maiden over the poly in Canada as well.
#7 William Tell makes his first start since last fall where the colt broke his maiden here at today's distance. The third and fifth place finishers in the race came back to graduate next out. Ran well two back in a neck loss off a three-month break.
Live Longshots:
These are price plays to watch today. A small win-place wager is in order or if your pockets are deep enough, use these runners in your trifecta and Pick 3 and Pick 4 wagers. One or two of these could be the difference between a regular day at the track and hitting the IRS window with a signer.
KEE R1 #4 Siphon the Kitty 10/1
KEE R3: #5 Coquihalla 12/1
KEE R6: #9 Daring Julie 10/1
KEE R6: #7 Missing Sefa 15/1
KEE R7: #4 Allseas 10/1
KEE R8: #3 Birbirdistheword 10/1
KEE R8: #1 Badge of Truth 15/1
KEE R9: #7 I’m in Love 8/1
KEE R10: #4 Tawfeer 10/1
Good luck padding your bankroll today!
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