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posted February 22, 2008 at 18:49 in Other Articles

BetUS Oscar Betting Odds

To WIN BEST ACTOR

February 24 -- Los Angeles

DANIEL DAY-LEWIS (There Will Be Blood) -2000

GEORGE CLOONEY (Michael Clayton) +800

JOHNNY DEPP (Sweeney Todd) +900

VIGGO MORTENSEN (Eastern Promises) +2000

TOMMY LEE JONES (In the Valley of Elah) +2500

If you were able to see Daniel Day-Lewis in the film "There Will Be Blood," you know what a powerhouse performance that was, in particular the last scene, which I will remember forever. I know a lot of people were not pleased with the very ending of the film, but everything that led to it was a showcase of brio, without going dangerously over-the-top (or at least that's the way I saw it). .

Day-Lewis has of course won an Oscar previously, for his leading performance in "My Left Foot." He has been nominated for "In The Name of the Father" and "Gangs of New York." Clearly Oscar likes him.

There is nearly unanimous opinion that he is a slam dunk to win the award, and that is reflected in the BetUS betting odds on the Oscars, which have him at 1/20, which basically means there's about a 95% chance of him winning.

Of course, if we were here to back that kind of favorite there wouldn't be any purpose for writing this. I'm here to tell about where there might be value in a long shot. Surely we have seen Oscar shockers before; did anyone really expect Adrian Brody to come away with the Best Actor award for "The Pianist" with Jack Nicholson, Nicolas Cage, Michael Caine and, yes, Daniel Day-Lewis to contend with?

Let's evaluate:

CLOONEY (8/1) -- As a morally-challenged attorney who could best be described as a "fixer," Clooney delivers, but it's not the kind of performance has anyone screaming "Oscar." Neither is the film, whose ending was a copout and on an overall basis is in fact saved by supporting efforts by Sidney Pollack and Tom Wilkinson, who is indeed a nominee, and worthy of it.

DEPP (9/1) -- Oscar likes Depp, who has been nominated previously for "Finding Neverland" and "Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl." But this one will be seen as just another in those quirky efforts in which Depp puts on a lot of makeup, although looking closer, you'll notice that he sings too. That is a revelation, but not enough to beat out Daniel Day-Lewis.

MORTENSEN (20/1) -- He probably deserved a nomination at least a couple of times, most notably for "A History of Violence." At 49 years of age, he's got time to win one, and may yet do that. But his role in "Eastern Promises," as critically acclaimed as it was, did not reverberate enough with viewers or most likely voters. If he had won a Golden Globe, maybe.

JONES (25/1) -- I believe if there is a dark horse in this field, it is Tommy Lee Jones, who has won an Oscar before (for "The Fugitive") and was nominated for "JFK." Jones is mesmerizing in his role as Hank Deerfield, a Vietnam veteran who is pursuing clues related to the death of his son, an Iraq war vet, "In the Valley of Elah." Jones is an everyman who gives a performance that is, in its own way, larger than life. He is dogged and determined, while at the same time while he has a sensitivity to his character. This is the kind of guy you might want to follow into battle.

This article is for those people who may have gone to the Belmont Stakes in 1973 and looked for someone else to bet on aside from Secretariat. If you thrive on surprises, maybe Tommy Lee Jones will be the guy to give it to you.

Additional sports and entertainment odds can be found in the BetUS.com Sportsbook, in Futures/props, under Entertainment Props.

(Charles Jay of http://www.ebookies.com is a regular contributor to the BetUS Locker Room)